OAG reports (12-Apr-2011) global airline capacity and frequency in Jul-2011 will rise 5% and 3% year-on-year respectively. In capacity terms, the Middle East continues to be the fastest growing region in Jul-2011. Details include:
OAG reports 5% rise in Jul-2011 global seat capacity
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US airlines: a turnaround in unit revenue just as cost pressures rise in 2017
The four largest US airlines are moving closer to returning to positive unit revenue in 2017 after each of those companies has issued an improved unit revenue forecast for 4Q2016, driven by stronger yields and continued improvement in close in bookings. The yield improvement indicates that the US domestic environment is gaining some pricing traction after two years of weak fares, and the results on close in bookings continue a trend that emerged in the US market during late 3Q2016 and continued through the rest of the year.
Delta and Southwest have both publicly cited a bump in demand since the US presidential election in Nov-2016. Delta has expressed cautious optimism that the US revenue environment has turned a corner, and the positive momentum is driving the company’s confidence of climbing out of a negative unit revenue performance in 1Q2017.
Key to sustaining unit revenue momentum is keeping capacity in check over the course of 2017. American, Delta, United and Southwest have all declared their intentions to lower capacity growth in 2017, and show no intentions of revising those targets upwards. Rising fuel cost and non fuel cost inflation are the major headwinds for US airlines in 2017, which has resulted in Delta declaring margin compression for the year.
US airlines Part 2: LCCs and ULCCs face the same cost overhang as their larger rivals
US low cost carriers and ULCCs observed many of the same trends in the country’s marketplace at the end of 2016 as their large global network rivals – namely, that weak pricing trends in the domestic market were improving. Each airline has its own nuanced view of that general operating environment, but they feel encouraged by what they hope is an inflection point in pricing that will lay the groundwork for a return to positive unit revenue.
Those lower cost and ultra-low cost airlines also face similar challenges to their larger counterparts – cost pressure from new labour contracts and rising oil prices. And like their larger rivals, most of the lower cost US airlines are plotting lower capacity growth in 2017 as a means to improve their respective revenue performances.
For now, pricing improvement that began in late 3Q2016 and a bump in demand after the US presidential election are sustaining the cautious optimism expressed by US airlines as 2017 gets under way. But no US airline is ready to declare that pricing traction in the country’s domestic market is on a sustained upswing.
This is Part 2 of two reports examining the outlook for US airlines in 2017.