IATA estimates coronavirus to cut global airline traffic by 4.7%, revenue by USD29.3bn

IATA released (20-Feb-2020) its initial assessment of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak. Key forecast highlights include:

• Global revenue loss: USD29.3 billion, a 5% decline compared to the Dec-2019 IATA forecast;
  • Asia Pacific revenue loss: USD27.8 billion. The majority of this will be borne by carriers registered in China, with USD12.8 billion lost in the China domestic market alone;
• Global passenger traffic: 4.7% reduction in demand. IATA's Dec-2019 forecast was for global RPK growth of 4.1%, so this loss would more than eliminate expected growth, resulting in a 0.6% global contraction in passenger demand for 2020;
  • Asia Pacific passenger traffic: Potential 13% full year loss of passenger demand. Given the initial forecast of 4.8% traffic growth, the net impact will be an 8.2% full year contraction.

The estimated impact assumes the centre of the public health emergency remains in China. If it spreads more widely to Asia Pacific markets then impacts on airlines from other regions would be larger. IATA also stated it is premature to estimate what this revenue loss will mean for global profitability. [more - original PR] [more - original PR - II]