GBTA: Airfares to decline 2.2% in 2025 but aircraft delivery delays 'hampering' recovery

Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and CWT reported (21-Jul-2025) the following highlights from their annual Global Business Travel Forecast:

• After a 4.8% year-on-year increase in the global average ticket price (ATP) in 2024, airfares are expected to decline by 2.2% in 2025, followed by a "modest" 0.4% uptick in 2026. The shift reflects a "gradual increase" in capacity, easing fuel and input costs, and a normalisation of travel patterns;
• Aircraft delivery delays from major manufacturers, along with ongoing maintenance and spare parts constraints, are "hampering" capacity recovery across many regions, potentially continuing to place upward pressure on prices. The forecast notes: "If a global recession occurs, ATPs could fall more sharply, by 5.7% in 2025 and another 1% in 2026, as demand drops and competition intensifies";
• North America recorded the highest ATP globally in 2024 at USD831, a 6.9% increase driven by "strong" demand and a shift toward long haul travel and premium cabin bookings. Prices are expected to correct in 2025, falling 2.9% to USD807, before rebounding slightly by 1.7% to USD821 in 2026;
• Europe, Middle East, and Africa ATPs rose 4.8% to USD823 in 2024 and are projected to increase a further 0.6% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026;
• Asia Pacific saw a "moderate" 2.9% rise to USD502 in 2024. A 1.8% dip is expected in 2025, followed by a 0.8% increase in 2026;
• Latin America ATPs increased 1.7% in 2024 to USD667. Pricing is expected to remain "relatively flat", dipping 0.4% in 2025 and rising 1.7% in 2026;
• The average cost per attendee at corporate meetings and events increased 4.5% in 2024, driven by rising labour and production costs, inflationary pressures and a shift toward "smaller, more curated, experience-led events".

CWT CEO Patrick Andersen stated: "This year's forecast shows encouraging signs that business travel pricing is normalising further - and that's creating real opportunities for corporate travel buyers". Mr Andersen said: "While economic uncertainty hasn't gone away, corporate travel buyers are regaining leverage and have more room to optimise their programs". GBTA CEO Suzanne Neufang stated: "The indicators are pointing to a more predictable era ahead for business travel pricing, with travel managers navigating a landscape that's steadier than the post-pandemic surge". Ms Neufang added: "However, that landscape will continue to be shaped by inflation, supply constraints, and evolving traveller expectations". [more - original PR]