Tyler cautions on rebound in aviation industry

Speaking at the Aviation Club in London, Mr Tyler said that while it is true that people in some parts of the world are talking about the green shoots of recovery, "we are not seeing much of that kind of plant life ourselves".

Acknowledging the fact that Cathay Pacific and other airlines have seen stabilization in the big drops in cargo and passenger numbers witnessed up to the summer months of this year, Mr Tyler questioned whether this was seasonal or structural.

"This is traditionally a good time for us on both the premium passenger and freight fronts. And we are seeing that this year," he said. "But whether it heralds a return to greener pastures remains to be seen. We'll have a better idea by the end of the year.

"I remain cautious. What I think is happening is a slow recovery effect exaggerated and amplified by seasonal factors. The longer the seasonal effect lasts, the easier it is to kid ourselves that we are seeing a sharp rebound. I'm not so sure," Mr Tyler said.

The theme of Mr Tyler's speech in London was "Aviation at the Crossroads: a View from Asia" - and he explained that this was not the first time for the industry to find itself in such a position.

"But I think most of us would agree that the crisis that first hit us last year is deeper and more unpredictable than any crisis we have seen before. And we have seen plenty in our business. For myself, I cannot remember the industry being in such bad shape in the 30 years I have been involved in it," he said.

"And the worst of it is that I cannot at this stage honestly say that I see the end of it. Not immediately in front of us, at any rate."

While Asian airlines have been hit harder than their European and US counterparts in the current financial meltdown, in a large part due to the collapse in front-end traffic, Mr Tyler said the region is likely to bounce back more quickly when true recovery comes.

"That is the nature of the region. Asia is sharply focused on economic development, it is on strong financial foundations and it's entrepreneurially nimble and agile," he said.

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