Boeing predicted Asia Pacific will overtake North America and Europe as the world's largest air transport market over the next 20 years (Associated Press/Reuters, 08-Mar-2011). "As we look to the future, we look to Asia. Growth in this market will clearly change the landscape of aviation," said Randy Tinseth, VP marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Boeing forecast that Asia will require 10,320 new aircraft over the next 20 years, or around a third of the world total. Air traffic growth is forecast at 6.8% p/a, higher than the global average of 5.3%. CAAC expects Chinese airlines to order more than 2000 aircraft over the next five years, including 1100 new transport aircraft and 1000 general aviation aircraft. CAAC vice minister Wang Changshun stated he expects the sector to "maintain a definite growth speed" over the next five years.
Boeing expects Asia to overtake North America and Europe as largest air market
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The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.
Gol warns capacity imbalance created by competitors could pressure yields in Brazil
Brazil’s largest domestic airline, Gol, is maintaining a cautious outlook for 2017 as concerns about capacity additions by Azul and Avianca Brazil create an overhang for a recovery in the country’s domestic market. Gol and its main competitor LATAM Airlines Brazil have maintained a rational supply during the last couple of years, but forward looking schedules for 2017 show double digit ASK growth for Azul and Avianca Brazil year-on-year in early May-2017.
Gol made progress in unit revenue and yield recovery in 2016, but remains concerned about the effects of competitive capacity growth on fares, and ultimately yields. The airline is forecasting slower yield growth in 2017, and is warning a lack of industry capacity discipline could create additional yield pressure. Gol plans to keep its own system capacity in check for 2017, with projections of flat growth to a 2% decrease as its fleet shrinks, before growing in 2018 when the airline takes first deliveries of its 737 Max jets.
Although the corporate market within Brazil remains in tenuous shape, Gol believes it has expanded its share among business travellers – driven in part by network changes it adopted in 2016 to make schedules more attractive to corporate customers. However, the size of Brazil’s corporate travel market remains stagnant, and predicting expansion of business travel remains difficult.