Avolon forecasts 8000 commercial jet aircraft retirements over next decade

Avolon published (19-Sep-2012) a review and analysis of commercial aircraft economic lives and retirement patterns. Avolon found the average retirement age for all commercial jet aircraft retired is close to 26 years. Avolon expects 8000 aircraft to be retired over the next 10 years, more than all of the retirements that have taken place since the 1950s. The analysis confirms in-service life and average retirement ages continue to support the global aviation industry's widely used 25-year depreciation assumption. The study supports the thesis the in-service lives of core wide and narrowbody fleets are not experiencing material diminution and the industry's economic life assumptions and depreciation policies will remain valid over the next decade and beyond. The analysis considers how trends in aircraft retirement have changed over time and identifies key differences between the behaviour of specific aircraft types. The paper also considers the likely impact on retirement trends and aircraft economic values of the retirement of newer fleets, including current A320 and Boeing 737NG aircraft. [more - original PR] [more - original PR - full analysis]