Airbus stated it expects Middle East carriers to require 1,418 new passenger aircraft valued at USD243 billion between 2009 and 2028 (Mena Report, 16-Nov-2009). Airbus stated it expects the region’s aircraft requirements to include 561 ‘single-aisle’ aircraft, 668 ‘twin-aisle’ aircraft and 189 ‘very large’ aircraft. By 2028, the region’s passenger fleet will, according to Airbus, almost treble from the 586 passenger aircraft at the beginning of 2009 to 1,681. Of these 586 passenger aircraft, newer models will replace 323 ageing aircraft, 221 will be recycled and 42 will remain in service, according to Airbus. Airbus also anticipates the region will average annual passenger growth rates of 6.4% over the next ten years and 5.4% between 2019 and 2028, with a 20-year growth rate of 5.9% (compared to a world average of 4.7%).
Airbus expects Middle East to require 1,418 new passenger aircraft between 2009 and 2028
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The Middle East region has the highest ratio of in service to on order aircraft (1.0 to 0.94). For every one aircraft in service in Feb-2017 (1459) there is nearly one on order (1368). The Middle East has the fourth largest regional backlog, much lower than the 4600 aircraft on order in Asia Pacific and lower than the 2200 aircraft on order in each of North America and Europe. Unlike North America and Europe, most new aircraft in the Middle East are for growth, not replacement.
Global commercial aircraft deliveries fell in 2016 as Boeing again outsold Airbus; 2017 to be a peak
The global commercial aircraft fleet grew by 4% in 2016 and the year ended with an order backlog of more than nine years of production. Among the regions, North America still has the biggest and oldest fleet, but the lowest ratio of orders to aircraft in service. By contrast, Middle East has the fewest in service, but the highest ratio of orders to current fleet numbers.
This report gives an overview of the number of commercial aircraft deliveries in 2016 and the outlook into 2017 and beyond. It also looks at numbers in service and on order by region. It is based on preliminary numbers from the CAPA Fleet Database and guidance on 2016 deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, who have yet to announce final numbers.
The data indicate that total worldwide deliveries fell in 2016, the first such decline for six years, as a result of delays to new aircraft programmes. Boeing delivered more aircraft than Airbus for the fifth straight year, but its deliveries fell short of its 2015 level, while Airbus increased its numbers year-on-year. Total deliveries will likely rise again in 2017, but this may prove to be a peak year.