Oriel reviewed its piece written in Jan-2016 and many of its thoughts panned out during 2016. In particular, the growing gap between the values of aircraft sold naked and those transacted with a lease in place. In Oriel’s opinion, this gap has reached unprecedented levels as new lessors and investors seeking yield have fuelled a value bubble for aircraft with leases attached.
Southeast Asia, along with the Middle East, are the only two regions with as nearly as many aircraft on order as in the active fleet. Southeast Asian airlines currently have nearly 1700 aircraft on order compared to an active fleet of approximately 1800 aircraft.