November 2018 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.3 percent in November from October, rising for the fourth consecutive month to reach a new all-time high, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics' (BTS). The November 2018 index level (140.0) was 47.7 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of for-hire freight shipments in November measured by the Freight TSI (140.0) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000.

The October index was revised to 138.2 from 138.8 in last month's release. Monthly numbers for August and September were revised up slightly.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal change from month-to-month comparisons. The index is based on estimates of the most recent two months of airline data.

Analysis: The Freight TSI November increase of 1.3 percent was driven by significant growth in trucking, air freight and pipeline, while water and rail intermodal decreased and rail carloads were stable. The TSI increase took place against a background of positive results for other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production index rose by 0.6 percent in November, with increases in in mining and utilities and no change in manufacturing. Personal income and housing starts grew. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing index rose to 59.3, indicating accelerating growth.

Trend: The 1.3 percent increase in the Freight TSI in November was the fourth consecutive monthly increase, for a total increase of 3.5 percent since a slight dip from June to July. It was the fourth time this year that Freight TSI grew by 1.3 percent or more. TSI has now had six record highs in 2018, including both November and October, and has been above the February all-time high of 132.7 in every subsequent month. The index is now up 6.7 percent in one year, 13.6 percent in two years and 15.9 percent in three years.

With a level of 140.0 in November, Freight TSI is now 40 percent above the level it had in its base year of 2000. TSI is indexed to combine physical measures of different modes, using a common base year. By definition, the value of the index in the base year is exactly 100.0 and the index level of 140 indicates a rise of 40 percent from the base year.

The November index was 47.7 percent above the April 2009 low when the index dropped below the base year level during the most recent recession. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in November 2018 (140.0) were 47.7 percent higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.8). The November 2018 level reached its all-time high (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 5.8 percent in November compared to the end of 2017 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 17.8 percent in the five years from November 2013 and are up 34.2 percent in the 10 years from November 2008 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: November 2018 for-hire freight shipments were up 6.7 percent from November 2017 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the December 2018 index is scheduled for Feb. 13.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.2 percent in November from its October level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI November 2018 level of 130.4 was 1.6 percent above the November 2017 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.9 percent in five years and up 17.9 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally-adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 1.0 percent in November from its October level (Table 8). The combined TSI November 2018 level of 136.9 was 5.1 percent above the November 2017 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 15.2 percent in five years and up 28.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database.

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the November Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:

For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight (estimated for most recent two months).

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation (estimated for most recent two months).

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).