EUROCONTROL Forecast Update 2024-2030

This Seven-Year Forecast (Autumn 2024) builds upon the February 2024 publication and incorporates the latest flight trends and route patterns (including summer 2024). It also includes a partial update of forecast inputs, such as the GDP forecast.

For 2024, the expected number of flights in ECAC is 10.7 million, reflecting growth of 5.1% (±0.7 pp) compared to 2023 (96% of 2019 levels). This is broadly in line with the February 2024 traffic forecast at network level. Many States, particularly in the Southeast, are experiencing significantly higher recovery rates.

For 2025, traffic is expected to grow by 3.7% (±1.7 pp) reaching 11.1 million flights. This reflects the 2024 outturn, an improved economic outlook and optimistic airline schedules for winter 2024-2025. Overall, traffic should return to pre-pandemic levels but with notable local variation.

Beyond 2025, average annual flight growth is expected to be +2.0% (±1.5 pp), reaching over 12 million flights by 2030 in the base scenario.These growth projections remain stable compared to the previous forecast.

For the States involved in the SES Performance Scheme, flight growth is expected to average 2.3% annually (±1.5 pp) between 2025 and 2029 (RP4), representing a slight upward revision from the February 2024 forecast.

Users of the forecast are strongly advised to consider the forecast range (low to high) as a tool to manage business risks. This forecast is subject to various uncertainties, including potential geopolitical disruptions, economic shocks, and ongoing challenges in the aviation industry.The geopolitical events that occurred in October 2024 in the Middle-East were not reflected in this forecast.