Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Civil Aviation
In light of the rapidly spreading disease named as COVID-19, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) actively monitors its economic impacts on civil aviation and regularly publishes updated reports and adjusted forecasts*. The latest version can be viewed here and all full reports are available further below.
ICAO is working alongside the Airport Council International (ACI) in monitoring the developments and to leverage their expertise and analysis conducted on the economic impacts of COVID-19 on airports.
Analysis of economic impacts of COVID-19 by State / restrictions
When assessing the economic impacts on civil aviation, ICAO takes into account 3 scenarios:
Baseline : hypothetical situation without COVID-19 outbreak with forecast as originally planned based on results from previous years;
Scenario 1 - "Mild" : seat capacity is estimated by airlines' schedule changes; load factor applied the same % as baseline in January, added a 15 and 12 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (15 percentage points lower in March for Korea, Iran and Italy) - indicated with a ;
Scenario 2 - "Severe" : seat capacity is estimated by airlines' schedule changes; load factor applied the same % as baseline in January, added a 25 and 22 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (25 percentage points lower in March for Korea, Iran and Italy) - indicated with a ;
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