Technology Rundown - Technology development: eVTOLs making stop-start progress in Australia

Transcript

Alan Polivnick:I'm Alan Polybniuk from Watson Farley and Williams. I'm joined on stage by Rob, Russell, and Phil. We're going to talk to you about eVTOLs. So what I'm going to do, panel, is if I can ask you each to tell us a little bit about your aircraft and where this fits in, what— how this contributes to Australia. Sure.

Russell Hoore:Um, so I'm Russell Hall from AMSL Aero, and we have a long-range hydrogen eVTOL. So eVTOL stands for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. Uh, that means they don't need an airport, uh, they don't need slots, um, they don't need a lot of, uh, the infrastructure that you've, you've heard people talk about today. And we really think they can be a game changer for, um, for aviation. And, uh, and our eVTOL, uh, as I said, is hydrogen powered. And the reason we, uh, we use hydrogen is to get long range because batteries are very heavy. Anybody who knows, um, little, uh, DJI drones knows that they only go for 20 minutes or so because the battery doesn't last very long and, uh, it's very heavy so it can't fly very far. But hydrogen's very light, so if you use hydrogen, you can go a long way. And once you go a long way, you can start to open up markets. So instead of the, the small markets that you just heard the last speakers talk about, small regional markets, which are a great entry point, for example, long range can get you places like Sydney to Melbourne, some of the busiest air routes in the world, and it can get you point to point. You don't end up at Melbourne Airport and then have to get the taxi in. You can actually land right in the city, for example, at the, um, on, on the river. So that's, that's us.

Rob Weaver:So, uh, my name is Rob Weaver from EVE Air Mobility. Uh, so this is our aircraft. Um, EVE is an Embraer company. Um, we're building an electric air taxi, uh, with global entry into service from 2027. Uh, we're looking to see the aircraft in Australia from 2028. So our aircraft is a piloted VFR aircraft. It's a 4-seater. It's IFR capable. It uses wings during the cruise phase of flight and a pusher prop, and then it has 8 fixed-pitch propellers for the takeoff and landing. Our focus is on the urban environment in the majority globally. So And I need to be turned on. I assume you'll catch up quickly on what I was saying. So we're focused on the urban mission up to 100 kilometers including range. So in Australia, we're focused on airport transfer, point-to-point either in the urban environment or the connection to islands, and tourism. We think tourism is a very large market. in Australia as well. So globally we have a backlog of 2,900 aircraft across 30 customers, roughly speaking, non-binding. But we announced our first binding agreement with a Brazilian operator at the Paris Air Show last month. In Australia, we have 4 customers who have signed non-binding agreements. So that's Nautilus based up here in Cairns, Microflight down in Melbourne, Sydney Seaplanes, and HeliSpirit over in WA. Um, and we look to move towards more binding agreements with them and entry into service from, from 2020 to 2028 in Australia.

Phil Swinsburg:Uh, Phil Swinnsburg from Wisk Aero. Um, we're looking at the Asia-Pacific region, uh, out here. We have an office here in, in Brisbane, but the company itself is California-based. Uh, it's owned by Boeing. Um, and we are a little bit different, but very, very similar to the rest of my colleagues here. We're also making, uh, eVTOL aircraft. Our aircraft, however, is unpiloted. So we're looking at an autonomous eVTOL aircraft. We're going through the certification process now, and we look to enter the market at the end of this decade, around about 2030. Similar payload and configuration to the rest of the team here, 4 passengers. There's both an electric version and a non-electric version. The electric version is catered more for the urban air mobility market, moving people around in congested cities. And particularly we see that market across the Asia Pacific being very high demand, moving people from the city to the regions and from the regions back into the city to overcome some of the major transportation challenges. Yeah, so that's Wisk Aero. You'll see up here the yellow aircraft, fully autonomous. And the reason why we're doing that is because this is part of a much broader future-looking version for the Boeing Company to looking at how we certify autonomy and what that means for the future of aviation.

Alan Polivnick:Thanks. You mentioned challenges before. Can I ask each of you, from where you sit now, given your sort of delivery and manufacturing timelines, what do you see as the sort of the biggest challenges you're going to face between now and the entry into service of these planes in Australia? Start with you, Russell.

Russell Hoore:I think, um, I think for customers and for operators, the biggest challenge is going to be infrastructure. Where do you land these aircraft in, in cities? Um, city infrastructure is very, very valuable. Um, so that's why we are focusing on longer-range, uh, regional air mobility and defence applications, um, so that, uh, we are less dependent on city-based infrastructure. And then as the urban air mobility market emerges and the air taxi market emerges, as there are vertiports being built in cities, and it could be on the top of car parks at Westfield, it could be on pontoons on the Yarra River, etc., as that infrastructure emerges, then we can enter that market.

Alan Polivnick:Thank you.

Rob Weaver:Yeah, so I mean, I'll talk about challenges, but I guess the positives first. I mean, I think there's a really strong business case Australia. We've got strong interest from customers. We've seen some great work by CASA in preparation. They have a roadmap in preparing for advanced air mobility. They've announced a joint harmonization framework with the US, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK. I tend to agree in the challenges space in Australia is the infrastructure on the ground and the role of local and state government in land planning is probably where I see us probably the furthest behind where we would need to be to really maximize the benefits of this industry. There's a lot of great infrastructure out there already. There's a lot of great aviation infrastructure. And one of the things we've focused on is partnering with established operators that have infrastructure, that understand how to operate out of the infrastructure that they have. They're experienced in moving people about in small-seat aircraft. And so we've got an advantage there. But actually to build on the potential, we do need to see that that network expand.

Phil Swinsburg:Mm-hmm.

Rob Weaver:If you take Western Sydney as an example, you know, it's, it's an hour from downtown Sydney. You can fly in in about 15 minutes. And so there's some great opportunities to offer some amazing products for people there to get to Western Sydney Airport very quickly. But we need that ground infrastructure to actually deliver upon that. Now, Sydney Seaplanes can operate out of Rose Bay. There are some other locations they can operate out of. But to gain the real benefits for the travelling public, we, we do need to focus on that ground infrastructure.

Phil Swinsburg:And so some of the things that we're working on because of those challenges, just at Wisk, we've got a great relationship with the Southeast Queensland Council of Mayors. Um, with, with them, we're working through a number of local town planning, um, opportunities. Uh, and so that will establish a framework which we think can then be, uh, implemented nationwide for local councils. Part of these challenges is not just flying to airports, but actually flying to where the community needs the operations to, to eventuate. Uh, and, and that will require the, the consultation with local councils on what the town planning needs to be for those particular areas. Um, the beauty about the eVTOL aircraft and the way they're being designed is they're relatively quiet. Uh, and so the penetration into the community is, is a critical issue, and, and social acceptance is a very critical issue as well, uh, for these types of new technology. But understanding that and making sure that it's compliant with a lot of the local planning guidelines will hopefully enhance the acceptance of these types of technologies.

Rob Weaver:Mm-hmm.

Phil Swinsburg:The other challenge, particularly for Wisk, will be on the autonomy space. So that's a hurdle that, you know, some of the other companies don't necessarily have to deal with. We are taking on that challenge with the FAA, and we're working with them very collaboratively. through that process, getting to understand what is autonomy, and that is very much a journey. As a result, we'll come to the market, you know, probably after some of our colleagues, but that's okay because we know that the end state for us is, you know, far more important.

Alan Polivnick:Just touching on that, one thing that occurred to me is, do you think that, for example, CASA has quite extensive regulations and policies on the use of drones. Do you think to some degree that's going to help With eVTOLs, or is it, is it not really going to, in the sense that they've already come up with a scheme for these flying objects that don't fly to and from airports? To what extent do you think that regulatory regime can help you?

Russell Hoore:I think the, um, the drones help us more than just regulatory regime. It helps us across the, across the board, across the value chain. Um, what we're seeing in Ukraine is, uh, absolutely game-changing use of of drones, and from that the defence departments worldwide are putting huge amounts of investment into drones, and then once they have a small drone for ISR, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance— is my microphone failing or is it still okay?

Alan Polivnick:It's okay.

Russell Hoore:Right. Once they have a small drone to do ISR work, then they say, right, we want a bigger one, and we want a bigger one, and we want a bigger one. So that's putting a whole lot of money into the development, technical development, and also regulatory Regulatory development. And then from that, you get into the airspace management, which I think some of these guys can talk about. So to me, it's like the early mobile phones. You start off with the early one, and you get more and more and more to the point that my daughter doesn't even use a laptop and doesn't even use email. She's in a completely different realm, and I think that's where we will be.

Alan Polivnick:I noticed you leaning down to remind ourselves of what phones used to weigh.

Rob Weaver:Yeah, that's right. Yeah, I mean, I compare our type of aircraft to more like a traditional aircraft, be it a helicopter or another type of aircraft. I think a lot of people put drones and eVTOLs into the same bucket, but we're going to be a type-certified aircraft. We're going to integrate into the aviation system. We're going to fit under traditional air traffic control arrangements. Through the 2030s, we'll see some development of that. So In some places around the world, we'll see some scale that means actually we need new approaches to air traffic management. And we might learn some things from how drones are managed in that space. But generally for us, you know, our customers are aircraft operators. This is gonna be a new type of aircraft that's gonna have some different characteristics to it, some different considerations in how it's operated. But broadly, we are trying to fit into the traditional aviation system in that space.

Phil Swinsburg:We actually think there's actually some advantages. And again, we're a little bit different because we don't have a pilot on the aircraft. And because of that, there is some correlation to how autonomous aircraft have flown already, and that is using a remote pilot. And so we still have a remote pilot that's on the ground monitoring the aircraft. So that's not dissimilar to what you see in some of the larger drones operating around the world.

Russell Hoore:Mm-hmm.

Phil Swinsburg:Um, and the other aspect of this is to facilitate a lot of that drone, uh, space air services as recently, and I think at, at the end of this year, we'll go live with their FIMS system. So the Flight Information Management System. Um, the benefit of that is the, uh, ability to access digital data. So weather data, um, flight data, et cetera. And we are quite hopeful that we are able to, and we have an MOU with air services and we're, and we're talking to them about this. About how we expand that low-level flight information management system to increase the integration within airspace to allow advanced air mobility aircraft to operate and utilise some of the existing infrastructure that Australia has. Australia is one of the leaders in this space from a digital integration perspective, and I think that's where we can see some correlation.

Alan Polivnick:Thank you. Um, Phil, sticking with you for the moment, what are your target markets in Australia? Is it— do you have specific markets, or is it a more general approach in terms of how you're going to offer these aircraft?

Phil Swinsburg:Yeah, so, um, similar to the rest of the team here, so the urban air mobility is, is one of the principal markets for us, um, and that's because of the function of the aircraft's performance of range. It's electric, so it only has a limited range. Um, but having said that, and we issued our Wisk ConOps early this year, in that we talked about a number of use cases. So not only is there the urban option, but we also see significant social benefit into the urban fringe and into the sort of the near rural areas. And by doing that, we think we can offer some great services, not only in the passenger movement, but also in logistical support, um, and servicing those communities using these electric aircraft. Um, again, when we talk about these, these types of aircraft, we are talking about the ability to have a number of these aircraft operating at once. Um, our aim is, because it's autonomous, we want to have a one-to-many relationship with our aircraft. So, so one operator potentially operating multiple aircraft. Now that's definitely into the future. We may not start that way. But that's the objective that we're looking to achieve. And we think that by embracing that understanding of how autonomous aircraft can operate, you can service a number of different markets simultaneously instead of just focusing on one. So yeah, rural, cargo, and the urban area are our priority areas.

Alan Polivnick:What about you, Roman?

Rob Weaver:Yeah, so I mean, I think we'll launch with a strong focus on tourism. I think aviation tourism is really strong in Australia. This is going to be a very different experience to a helicopter. Quiet cabin where the pilot can communicate without headphones to the passengers, big windows, a unique experience. When we get them in Australia in hopefully 2028, there won't be many of these in Asia Pacific. Um, so a really unique opportunity. But I see airport transfer as a significant part of the early market as well. So when you land in Cairns but you want to be in Port Douglas, when you land in Brisbane Airport but you want to be on the Gold Coast or the Sunshine Coast, when you land in Western Sydney Airport but you want to be in downtown Sydney, when you land in Melbourne, but you actually want to be on the Mornington Peninsula. Those are great use cases for real, real customers that really want to kind of travel quickly to their actual destination, be it another urban location, be it an island. I land in Townsville, but I want to be on Magnetic Island. And we're delivering a tourism experience with that as well. An amazing way to get to your final destination. A real experience that people are willing to pay that extra little bit of cost for, for that transport mode compared to being on ground. And we see that's where we'll start. The, the potential for this in Australia is, is significant. I think we don't expect it to be the scale that we would see in India or China or Japan or Korea. Um, uh, Asia Pacific is meant to be 42% of the global market. Uh, but we see a really strong market in this country that, um, is giving people a new way to experience getting to their final destination.

Alan Polivnick:Thank you. What about you, Russell?

Russell Hoore:I've got to agree on the tourism angle. I think there's some irony in taking a helicopter flight out to see the Great Barrier Reef, to use one of the most polluting forms of transport to see something so precious that is being destroyed by that very form of transport, I think is terrible. So our early markets, we— AMSL Aero is a startup, so we have to focus on early markets. very, very carefully. We're not backed by the Boeings and the Embraers of the world. So we're looking at defence. As I said, defence have a lot of intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance drones. They want to then move material around, so they want to move casualties around as well. So defence doesn't want to put a pilot and expensive helicopter at risk by picking up an injured soldier at the front line. They want to be able to autonomously fly in, have the soldier put in the aircraft, and then autonomously flown out. And then, so there's the defence. Then on the civil side, yep, there's tourism. There's, I think what you'll see on the rotation is Airlink. That's a local operator, one of our first customers. They run a couple of King Airs here out of Cairns. They do, they also have sister— so that's doing passenger work and light cargo work. They also have sister companies in aeromedical.

Alan Polivnick:Yeah.

Russell Hoore:So that's AirMed out of Bankstown Airport. They want to be putting low acuity patients, moving them around. And the advantage to them is that they don't need to reposition the patient from an aircraft and then reload them into a road ambulance and then drive them to the hospital. They can land directly on the hospital helipad. So once you get aeromedical, then you can get regional aviation where I think there'll be a lot of induced demand. Yeah, driving from Sydney to Canberra or flying to Sydney to Canberra, it's a terrible experience. The flying, you spend more time on the ground than in the air, and in the end, if you live on the southern side of Sydney, it's almost faster to drive. Why wouldn't you want to fly point to point straight to your destination in Canberra? And then as we get more range, we can do longer and longer flights. Again, point to point gives you a faster trip. It gets you further than a helicopter can, much cleaner than a helicopter, safer than a helicopter because we've all got multiple rotors instead of a single rotor, and at much lower cost than traditional aviation.

Alan Polivnick:Thank you. I think cost is probably the next question I had. Where do you pitch this? I mean, let's start with you, Rob, in terms of the sort of Melbourne to Mornington Peninsula. Are you going to be more expensive than a helicopter, the same price? Is it going to be cheaper than an Uber? Where does that get pitched?

Rob Weaver:Yeah, so I don't spend much time flying about in helicopters. I don't know whether anybody else does here. Maybe some people do. But this is meant to be a mode of transport that we would consider taking. Obviously, I think the economics will improve over time. Look at what you had to pay for a Tesla when they first launched and what you pay for a Tesla now. But certainly as we launch, we're looking for a price point that is far more accessible than a helicopter flight. And you combine that better economics with the noise improvements. So, you know, when we're flying in the cruise phase of flight, it's wings and one electric motor and a pusher prop. That's all it is going. So we see that there's going to be a greater adoption supported by the community, as Phil was talking about, and actually a price point that people would consider. If I'm in— go back to Western Sydney Airport. I've taken an Uber out there, or I've booked an Uber out there, and it's $150 from the CBD. You know, so there's a price comparison there that we can kind of look at and that we want to kind of achieve. I think we'll see the economics improve through the 2030s. I think the other key point with this is that we need scale to really kind of deliver on that economic value.

Russell Hoore:Yeah.

Rob Weaver:We need to get really good utilization of the aircraft. And these aircraft will fly all year round. So they're not spending a third of the year in the shop being maintained. They're, again, like your Tesla, you're not spending so much time maintaining it. And we want much higher utilization of the ground infrastructure as well. So lower landing fees and greater use of the aircraft, greater use of the infrastructure that allows us to deliver better price points for the Thank you.

Phil Swinsburg:Yeah, Rob raises a good point about the utilisation. I think this is all wrapped up in how the airline or the operator is going to use this, and that's the price point that's going to come out of it. I think we've always been quite open, at Wisk anyway, is we see that it's— you can model it around about the Uber price. You know, that's the end state. It might not be the start state, but I think that's the end state that we're all— Trying to head to, because that's really the sort of the competition. We're talking about time and we're talking about convenience. And one of those metrics now, whereas if you can jump into an Uber and it's going to, you know, $40, $50, but it's going to take you 45 minutes, you know, then time is of essence here. And so that will be some sort of metric in which we look at. Utilisation is a great one. You know, we're looking at, for electric aircraft, turning the aircraft around in 15 to 20 minutes.

Rob Weaver:Okay.

Phil Swinsburg:And then putting the aircraft back straight out on a mission or a flight, and then doing exactly the same thing and doing that for 15 to 16 hours a day. So utilising the system, then that's also predicated on having the right routes and the demand. But once you achieve that particular metric, then I think we'll see the pricing be very, very competitive.

Alan Polivnick:We're almost out of time. My final question to you is, we've We've had a lot of discussion about sustainable aviation and SAF and all of these things. Where do the eVTOLs fit into that sustainable aviation picture?

Russell Hoore:What's—

Alan Polivnick:we'll start with you.

Russell Hoore:Well, the absolute future. SAF, we believe at AMSL, is going to be limited by feedstock availability. So we think most of the SAF being produced will be hoovered up by the the Qantas and the other speakers of the, of the, um, uh, at this conference. So we, we have to go, we have to go electric. Uh, it's just how we store the— how do we store the electricity in the, in the aircraft? But once you go electric, uh, if you can generate that electricity in a sustainable way, you've basically got zero emissions all the way through the pipeline.

Rob Weaver:Yeah, I mean, sustainability is very hard for the aviation industry as As we had talked about, I mean, fortunately, um, the kind of urban air mobility environment is the space where we can actually deliver true zero emissions flight. If you use a renewable energy source, um, we are talking about true zero emissions flight in Australia in 3 years' time. Um, so your tra— transport to the airport can be completely zero emissions. That's important for, uh, a lot of companies and a lot of organizations, or zero emissions tourism. And so, yeah, we're in a fortunate position that we can actually deliver on that dream that I think a lot of the aviation industry would like to contribute towards. And we're happy to lead the way in that space for the industry.

Phil Swinsburg:Yeah, and same, same. I mean, the electricity sourcing, green electricity is the key to having the true sustainability outcome. Hydrogen, I think, is going to be a great opportunity in the future for fuel cells. Storing that, we know across the country that hydrogen's got a bit of a stop-start sort of issue. How do we manufacture it? How do we store it, et cetera? But I think that's because it's a nascent industry. And as we start to evolve and emerge in this space, I think hydrogen has some great potential here. But at the moment, yeah, it's electric. And that's the start state.

Alan Polivnick:Yeah, I mean, I think that's right. Certainly one of the things that strikes me about this is airports, once this gets up and going, is a lot of airports will look at this, if it's carbon neutral, as one of the ways to help them get to their targets and their goals. And I think part of that comes back to the infrastructure that's going to be needed for this and where it's going to be pitched. So no, I think that's very good. Well, thank you very much, gentlemen. That was very good. Thank you all.

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