CAPA Think Tank: North America Market Overview

CAPA will host a selection of North American aviation leaders in a roundtable discussion covering some of the most important topics to the air transport industry. Join these high-profile speakers as they offer their insights into the state of airlines and airports in the region, the outlook for market consolidation, the changing nature of passenger expectations and the onboard experience, progress on industry financial recovery and more.

Key themes to be discussed during this Think Tank include but not limited to:

• Consolidation: US lawmakers and regulators have recently spoken out against the consolidation of the US airline market. Five airlines now control more than 80% of domestic seats and nearly 50% of international seats. Given the concentration in the market, will there be more regulatory opposition to future attempts at mergers and consolidation?

• Share buyback: US airlines are projected to make around USD9 billion in profits in 2023. In the previous decades, US airlines spent much of their available cash on share buybacks. These have attracted significant negative attention from consumers, unions and lawmakers in recent years. Is there an expectation that share buybacks will resume or are airlines going to take a more circumspect approach?

• Workforce: Airlines have invested heavily in their workforces in the last 12 months, expanding employment above pre-pandemic levels in order to avoid a repeat of recent operational issues. Yet, employee and skills shortages remain an issue. What are the key bottlenecks for staffing in the sector and how do airlines ensure that these don’t ripple out into yet more operational issues?

• Unions: Airlines remain one of the most unionized industries in the US, and the end of the pandemic has also brought with it an uptick in labor unrest and union activity. With unemployment continuing to drop, staffing shortages and unions threatening strike action, has the balance of power in the workplace shifted?

• Leasing: With demand back to normal, slow OEM delivery rates and interest rates climbing, lease rates climbed sharply in 2022. What is the outlook for aircraft lease rates for 2023 and what can airlines do to get more aircraft out into the market?

• Debt: US airlines took on more than USD50 billion in debt to ensure their survival during the pandemic. As interest rates continue to rise, how are airlines coping with the increased debt load?

• Passenger experience: US airlines continue to receive criticism over the passenger experience onboard the aircraft and delays and cancellations on the ground. 2022 saw the US DOT levy an all-time record for civil penalties against airlines. What do airlines do to restore passenger confidence in their operational reliability and how do airlines ensure that the onboard experience is more enjoyable for passengers?

• Airports: Is there any political reality in coming years which will normalize/encourage the adoption of PPP agreements at airports in North America?

• ULCCs: What sort of impact has the expansion of the ultra low cost, leisure focused model had on the industry?