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Analysis Reports
We employ a global team of highly-experienced analysts who deliver a wealth of commentary about the aviation and travel industry. Our analysts don’t just report the news, they look at the big picture to help you understand how the latest news, issues and trends will affect your business. CAPA’s commitment to independence and integrity means every report is filled with accurate data and actionable insights to help you stay ahead of the game.
The 2023 rankings of Europe's top 20 airline groups by passenger numbers are very similar to their pre-pandemic order of 2019.
Collectively, the top 20 airline groups increased passenger numbers by 17% year-on-year, and were only 3% short of their 2019 traffic level. The seven LCCs among the top 20 fared better, and collectively carried 8% more passengers than in 2019.
Ryanair Group extended its lead as Europe's biggest airline group by passenger numbers in 2023. Its 182 million passengers in the calendar year gave it a huge lead over second-placed Lufthansa Group's 123 million.
The gap of 59 million was more than the annual passenger count of Wizz Air Group.
Ryanair carried 97 million more passengers than the next biggest low cost airline group, easyJet. This gap was more than Air France-KLM Group's annual traffic.
The three planned acquisitions by the leading legacy groups would not change the rankings: Ryanair's lead looks set to endure.
After one competitor fades, Canada's long-standing airlines behave rationally in the market
CAPA ANALYST PERSPECTIVE - a series where CAPA - Centre for Aviation's analyst team provide their personal views on a hot topic facing aviation around the world.
The demise of Lynx Air in Canada was hardly a shock to those familiar with the country's aviation history, which is rich with low cost airline failures. Lynx was a small-scale operator, with a fleet of nine Boeing 737-8s, when it ceased operations in late Feb-2024.
But the airline's exit could create opportunities for Canada's other airlines - if they behave in a rational manner.
Canada's three largest operators - Air Canada, WestJet and Porter Airlines - have co-existed for quite some time and know the market well. And each airline has a somewhat distinct strategy going forward that has promise in the market.
Lori Ranson, Senior Analyst, Americas at CAPA - Centre for Aviation shares her viewpoint.
The Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer reversed its fortunes in 2023, reporting a full-year profit as it expanded aircraft production, grew various order backlogs, and enjoyed a series of one-time tax benefits.
Revenue at the company grew 16.0% year-on-year, to USD5.3 billion, with all of Embraer's business segments reporting double digit revenue growth.
Revenue at Embraer Commercial Aviation, the company's largest business segment, grew 19.6%, to USD1846.7 million (35.1% of total revenue), due to 12% growth in aircraft deliveries. Services and Support revenue rose 11.9%, with the company reporting MRO capacity expansion in the US and the rest of the world. Defence revenues were up 25%, and Executive Aviation revenue grew 13%.
Adjusted EBIT at Embraer was USD350 million - compared to an Adjusted EBIT loss of USD110.5 million in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was USD561.9 million. Adjusted EBIT margin was 6.7% and EBITDA margin was 10.7%, which met company guidance for the year.
Net income was USD79.5 million, up from a net profit of USD38.5 million in 2022. Embraer reported that it had enjoyed a series of tax efficiency gains in several of its business segments, including Executive Aviation, Commercial Aviation and Services & Support.
Australia's regional airports 'unviable' without Federal budget aid; three examples. Part two
According to Regional Capitals Australia (RCA), which advocates for regional capital cities "to have a clear and central role in national policy", the country's airports need urgent (unspecified) financial support from the Federal government in the forthcoming budget or they will become "unviable".
There are many Australian airports - 630 of them - and although some have been privatised by way of lease for 25 years now, and others are grass strips to enable the Flying Doctors to do their rounds, a couple of hundred remain under local council control.
These airports are critical gateways for industry and commerce in towns of widely varying economic constitution, often in the absence of realistic alternative travel modes in one of the largest countries in the world.
The report, in two parts, examines the RCA's claims and then looks at three airports across the country where air travel is crucial to the local economy and why.
Delta Air Lines remains one of the strongest airlines worldwide, reflected in a solid balance sheet and a solid return on invested capital, whereas some other US airlines are experiencing financial headwinds.
But the company believes that there is more ground to be gained in its financial performance, and it has a plan in place to achieve its goal of a mid-teens operating margin.
Some of the key drivers of its confidence in attaining its margin goals are leveraging the strength of its premium products, attaining pre-pandemic operating levels in its core hubs, and improved utilisation of its assets.
More broadly, even as United Airlines works to position itself alongside Delta as another large global premium airline, Delta's brand continues to remain robust, and that strength shows no signs of weakening.
Australia's regional airports 'unviable' without Federal budget aid; three examples. Part one
According to Regional Capitals Australia (RCA), which advocates for regional capital cities "to have a clear and central role in national policy", the country's airports need urgent (unspecified) financial support from the Federal government in the forthcoming budget or they will become "unviable".
There are many Australian airports - 630 of them - and although some have been privatised by way of lease for 25 years now, and others are grass strips to enable the Flying Doctors to do their rounds, a couple of hundred remain under local council control.
These airports are critical gateways for industry and commerce in towns of widely varying economic constitution, often in the absence of realistic alternative travel modes in one of the largest countries in the world.
The report, in two parts, examines the RCA's claims and then looks at three airports across the country where air travel is crucial to the local economy and why.
In 2Q2024 seat capacity to/from/within Europe is scheduled to rise above 2019 levels for the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to data from CAPA - Centre for Aviation and OAG, 2Q2024 capacity will reach 100.7% in 2Q2024 - up from 94.7% in 1Q2024.
Intercontinental capacity is set to be at 104.1% (only Europe to Asia Pacific is still scheduled to be below 100%), with intra-Europe at 99.6%.
Within Europe, the recovery has been led by low cost airlines, who have emerged from COVID-19 with enhanced seat share.
All operators have benefited from growth in air fares in the past three years. Although air fare inflation is down from its peaks, there are signs of renewed upward pressure.
While Cathay Pacific has remained generally on track with its capacity recovery plans so far, it is pushing back its target for full recovery slightly to ensure the stability of its operations while it expands.
The airline's post-pandemic recovery has lagged those of most other major airlines, as the Hong Kong government took a cautious approach to removing travel restrictions.
Since these restrictions were removed, the airline has been making good progress in ramping up its capacity. However, this process has not been entirely smooth - pilot shortages contributed to operational disruptions over the 2023 Christmas period.
Cathay Pacific was signalling in 2023 that it intended to reach 100% capacity recovery by the end of 2024. But this target was shifted in Mar-2024, when the airline set a new goal of achieving full recovery in the first quarter of 2025.
A major factor in this will be ensuring that the airline has adequate workforce - particularly pilots - to support the continued expansion. Cathay Pacific executives are expressing confidence that they are on top of the hiring challenge.
In addition to its workforce initiatives, Cathay Pacific is undertaking some major investments in its fleet and product offerings. This will include more aircraft orders, and cabin upgrades for multiple fleet types over the next few years.
One of the major themes to emerge in the US during the past year is that a growing preference for premium products could negatively affect the country's ultra-low cost carriers.
Some US ULCCs are pushing back against the narrative, arguing that conclusion is incorrect.
Those operators are also contending that their product offerings are evolving, and creating new revenue streams.
The pressure could intensify for those airlines to prove sceptics wrong in 2024, but two US ultra-low cost operators - Frontier Airlines and Sun Country - feel confident about their prospects.
In conversation with... Kevin Willis, a key figure in the FAA's privatisation of airports in the US
At the end of Jan-2024 Kevin Willis retired from the Federal Aviation Administration, where he has held critical roles in the privatisation of some of the airports in the United States, culminating in the position of Director, Office of Airport Compliance and Management Analysis, which he held from Aug-2016.
Mr Willis is in a better position than most to comment on how the airport privatisation procedures in the US, introduced in the President Clinton era in the mid-1990s, have developed over the years; their successes and their failures.
He kindly agreed to exchange views with CAPA - Centre for Aviation in a personal capacity, while shedding light on the many complexities of the procedures.