Video of the week: Beyond the cycle - how airlines are rewriting the rules of downturns

For decades, airline management has been defined by an almost ritualistic response to downturns: cut capacity, defer investment, shrink the workforce and wait for demand to return.

This session from the CAPA Airline Leader Summit - World, held in Dec-2025, examined whether that playbook is finally being retired.

Drawing on the perspectives of airline leaders from Europe, the Middle East, North America and small-island markets, the discussion explored how airlines are increasingly managing volatility with greater discipline, data sophistication and strategic confidence.

Despite slowing macroeconomic growth, persistent geopolitical tensions and fragile consumer sentiment, industry expectations entering 2026 remain notably resilient. Balance sheets are stronger than in previous cycles, fleet flexibility has improved, and network planning has become far more dynamic.

Recent examples include airlines maintaining capacity through regional conflicts, absorbing fuel price volatility without panic responses, and continuing targeted investment in premium cabins, loyalty platforms and digital distribution even as yields soften.

The session also addressed the limits of this new resilience. Structural weaknesses remain, particularly around supply chain fragility, labour constraints and uneven access to capital across regions. Leaders debated how to calibrate responses when the depth and duration of a downturn are unclear, and how to avoid overreacting to short-term signals.

Finally, the discussion assessed the growing role of advanced analytics and AI in crisis management. While decision-support tools are increasingly central to scenario planning and network optimisation, the session underscored the ongoing risk of data overload and false precision.

The emerging consensus: cyclicality may not be dead, but airlines are learning how to live with it far more rationally than ever before.