Oil markets looking for direction
Oil markets have essentially gone sideways since the middle of March, searching for the next queue on the global economy. Opec's moves to talk up oil markets, predicting higher demand for crude this Northern Summer, have largely failed. Opec oil ministers next meet on 28-May-09.
More gloomy economic forecasts from the IMF and disclosure of further bad debts by some of the world's largest banks have pulled markets lower. The reality is, no-one knows if we have reached the bottom of the cycle yet.
Underlying crude prices (WTI) eased a further 5.8% in the week to 21-Apr-09 and jet fuel prices have also fallen, but not as much, including New York (-4.7%), the US Gulf Coast (-4.3%), Los Angeles (-4.9%), Amsterdam (-2.4%) and Singapore (-3.8%).
Jet fuel prices are down more than crude over the past 12 months, with refining margins for jet fuel appearing to narrow.
Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore vs Crude Spot price (WTI, USD per barrel): 14-Apr-09 to 21-Apr-09
|
|
14-Apr-09 |
15-Apr-09 |
16-Apr-09 |
17-Apr-09 |
20-Apr-09 |
21-Apr-09 |
one week
|
12 month
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
New York Harbor |
143.74 |
144.6 |
144.36 |
146.35 |
136.2 |
136.94 |
-4.7% |
-63.4% |
|
U.S. Gulf Coast |
139.99 |
141.1 |
142.11 |
142.6 |
133.2 |
133.94 |
-4.3% |
-61.9% |
|
Los Angeles |
144.49 |
145.1 |
146.11 |
146.73 |
136.7 |
137.35 |
-4.9% |
-60.8% |
|
144.05 |
147.83 |
147.37 |
148.28 |
139.22 |
140.65 |
-2.4% |
-60.8% |
|
|
143.76 |
145.71 |
148.67 |
145.29 |
142.26 |
138.33 |
-3.8% |
-59.7% |
|
|
WTI Spot |
49.51 |
49.26 |
49.97 |
50.36 |
45.82 |
46.65 |
-5.8% |
-60.3% |
Daily jet fuel prices (kerosene, cents per gallon) at New York, US Gulf Coast, Los Angeles, Amsterdam, Singapore: 25-Nov-08 to 21-Apr-09
Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation & US Energy Information Administration