IATA data and why to expect its next profit forecast will be a downwards revision: a CAPA guide

The International Air Transport Association's publication of its December Premium Traffic Monitor completes its cycle of reporting for 2012. In this analysis, we review the full range of IATA's regular data and statistics to summarise the current state of the global airline industry. We also provide IATA's timetable of forthcoming updates.

Total passenger traffic has recovered well from the global financial crisis and has seen two years of growth close to long term trend rates, although IATA sees this slowing in 2013. Premium traffic has seen its share of total passenger numbers fall from 9.5% in 2007 to 8% by the end of 2012. Cargo traffic has seen two years of negative growth and is below pre-crisis levels, but is forecast to return to modest positive growth in 2013. Passenger yields are forecast to flatten off after three years of growth reflecting modest capacity expansion, while cargo yields are forecast to fall once again.

IATA expects airline industry net profit to increase from an estimated USD6.7 billion in 2012 to USD8.4 billion in 2013. This cautious optimism is supported by its latest quarterly survey of airline business confidence, but its forecast might need to be revised downwards if recent jet fuel price increases hold through the year.