Global passengers and cargo increased by up to 6% in 2025; that won't be the case in 2026

Global aviation in 2025 presented a striking contradiction: record-breaking traffic achieved within an increasingly fragile and constrained operating environment.

Passenger volumes reached 9.8 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with international travel accounting for much of the momentum and reinforcing the sector's structural shift toward long-haul and cross-border demand.

Air cargo volumes and aircraft movements also expanded, signalling continued resilience across both passenger and freight segments.

This performance was underpinned by supportive economic factors, notably lower fuel prices and easing inflation, which sustained demand despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Yet growth was neither uniform nor unconstrained. Capacity limitations - ranging from infrastructure bottlenecks and aircraft delivery delays to restricted airspace - tempered expansion, while geopolitical tensions continued to reshape global traffic flows and airline network strategies.

The resurgence of Asia Pacific, led by China's reopening, accelerated the rebalancing of global hub dynamics, as established markets faced mixed performance and increasing volatility. Meanwhile, air cargo remained structurally strong, driven by e-commerce demand and evolving supply chains.

But now, as the industry has moved into 2026, rising geopolitical risk, fuel volatility, and operational pressures point to a more uncertain trajectory, where sustaining growth may prove significantly more challenging than achieving it.