France aviation: growth stalls as LCCs cut capacity due to high costs
France's aviation market is stuck on a capacity plateau. Total seat numbers are scheduled to be broadly unchanged in 2026 from the previous year.
Furthermore, France capacity is up by just 3% on the pre-pandemic year of 2019 and by only 28% since 2010. By comparison, Europe capacity overall this year is 11% up on 2019 and 53% up on 2010. Among Europe's top five markets, only Germany has fared worse than France.
Air France-KLM, France's leading airline group, has not grown capacity at all since 2010. Growth in its low cost subsidiary, Transavia France, has served only to replace cuts by Air France.
The large majority of the market growth since 2010 has been provided by low cost airlines that compete with Air France-KLM. However, they have been shrinking over the past two years. France's high location costs are squeezing their profitability and reducing the incentive to invest capital and capacity in France.
France risks losing out on the economic, social and cultural benefits of growth in air traffic if its aviation market does not become more competitive.
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