Air cargo's resilience is real. Its foundations are not

Air cargo's 2025 performance looks impressive on the surface: cargo tonne-kilometres rose 8.5% and air freight's share of global trade value reached a record 29.5%.

But beneath those headline numbers lies a more fragile market.

Growth has become increasingly concentrated in AI-related goods, premium perishables and a handful of strategically important corridors, rather than reflecting broad-based expansion in global trade.

That concentration matters because the supply side has struggled to keep pace.

Available cargo capacity grew only 4.4%, leaving little spare capacity when geopolitical disruption, higher fuel prices and Middle East airspace restrictions arrived in 2026. The result has been a sharp rise in yields, with IATA reporting a 34% year-on-year increase in Jun-2026.

The fading of tariff-driven frontloading does not remove the underlying strength, but neither does it guarantee that today's growth is sustainable.

AI investment has become a powerful new demand engine, while Central Asia is emerging as an alternative cargo corridor as operators adapt to Middle East disruption.

The central question for 2026 is therefore not whether air cargo remains resilient, but whether an industry increasingly dependent on a narrow set of high-value flows can build enough capacity and diversification to withstand its next shock.