AAPA: Traffic outlook positive despite Japan earthquake

Association of Asia Pacific Airlines has given a positive outlook for continued regional and global economic growth, although the the lingering effects from the Japanese earthquake will continue to have an impact on patterns of travel demand in the second quarter of the year. More broadly, AAPA remains very concerned by the continued rise in oil prices, which are already pushing up the cost of travel and threatening to undermine global economic growth.

 AAPA reported the following international traffic highlights for its member airlines:

  • Mar-2011:
    • Passenger numbers: 15.5 million, -1% year-on-year;
    • Passenger load factor: 74.8%, -5.4 ppts;
    • Cargo traffic (FTKs): +0.4%;
    • Cargo load factor: 70.4%, -3.2 ppts;
  • 3 months ended Mar-2011:
    • Passenger numbers: 46.2 million, +3.1%;
    • Passenger load factor: 76.5%, -3.1 ppts;
    • Cargo traffic (FTKs): +1.1%;
    • Cargo load factor: 67.1%, -3.3 ppts.

Stock performances for Asia Pacific airlines were mixed on Wednesday, with Chinese carriers mostly finishing the day lower and EVA Airways shares slipping 6.3%. Japanese and Southeast Asian carriers were better performing, with All Nippon Airways up 3.9%, Skymark Airlines 2.1% stronger and AirAsia gaining 4.5%. Pakistan International Airlines shares closed up 6.2%. The Pakistan flag carrier forecast passenger and cargo traffic will increase by 5.6% and 6.1% respectively over 2011, helping to shave the ongoing losses at the troubled airline. 

ANA has declined to provide a forecast for its performance for the current fiscal year due to uncertainty related to the disaster. The carrier returned to profit in the 12 months to 31-Mar-2011 but reported a narrowed loss in the Mar-2011 quarter despite plummeting demand for travel. The airline said domestic passengers from 11-Mar-2011 to 31-Mar-2011 slumped 27% year-on-year while international passengers declined 17%.

Selected APAD daily share price movements (% change): 28-Apr-2011