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IATA cuts airline industry 2010 loss forecast by half. Structural shift in premium yields?


The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has halved its airline industry loss forecast for 2010 to USD2.8 billion (compared to the USD5.6 billion loss forecast in Dec-2009) and lowered its 2009 loss estimate from a previously forecast USD11 billion to USD9.4 billion. The upgrade is largely driven by a “much stronger” recovery in demand seen by year-end gains that continued into the early months of 2010. [1412 words]

Unlock the following content in this report:


  • “Two-speed industry”: Europe to generate largest losses in 2010; Latin America and Asia Pacific profitable
  • Improvement as premium travel returns, but concerns of a structural shift in premium yields
  • Revenues “half way to recovery”; remain USD42 billion below the 2008 peak
  • Improving Demand
  • Strong recovery in load factors, due to careful capacity management
  • Key concerns - a raft of fleet deliveries and underutilisation
  • Rising fuel prices a concern – to add USD19 billion to the industry fuel bill in 2010

Graphs and data:

  • Global commercial airline profitability: 1995 to 2010F
  • IATA outlook by region for 2009 and 2010: Previous forecast (Dec-2009) profits (losses) and current forecast (Mar-2010)
  • Average international fares, ex taxes and surcharges: 2005 to 2009
  • Passenger numbers on international markets by seat class
  • Premium passengers and world trade growth: Jan-2006 to Dec-009
  • Revenues on international markets by seat class: 2005 to 2009
  • Air travel (RPKs) and freight volumes (FTKs) on international markets: 2005 to FY2011
  • Seasonally adjusted load factors on international markets: Jan-2006 to Dec-2009
  • Passenger and freight Capacity (seasonally adjusted): Jan-2005 to Dec-2009
  • Scheduled deliveries of new aircraft, jets and turboprops: 2000 to 2010
  • Aircraft utilisation (average hours per day) for narrowbody and widebody fleet: 2005 to 2009
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