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Chinese airline fleet to DOUBLE to 5,000 by 2015 - CAAC


The CAAC has come out with an extraordinary prediction this month: Chinese airlines will nearly double their fleet size to as many as 5,000 aircraft by 2015. In the shadows of a major international air show on home soil, one might expect some bullish sentiment from the hosts. But the comment, by CAAC Head Li Jiaxiang, that the nation's domestic carriers will have an expected combined fleet of 4,800-5,000 aircraft in just five years (from 2,600 at present) is a breathtaking assessment. Even if it's only 50% accurate, aircraft manufacturers big and small are in for a bonanza. [2333 words]

Unlock the following content in this report:


  • China’s civil aviation industry growing at a rate of 17.2% p/a since 1978
  • Infrastructure improvements required to support this growth
  • Boeing raises forecast: China requires USD480b aircraft by 2030
  • Boeing expecting only “modest deregulation” that would allow LCCs to flourish
  • Airbus: Expects traffic growth in China of 7.9%
  • China dominating in freight arena
  • Airbus expects to overtake Boeing as largest aircraft manufacturer in China
  • Massive potential on services to/from secondary cities
  • Outlook: Huge potential

Graphs and data:

  • Chinese carrier in service and on order fleet: Nov-2010
  • China annual passenger numbers and forecast: 2003 to 2030F
  • Forecast summary passenger traffic development: 2009 to 2029
  • Forecast summary Annual traffic growth: 2009 to 2029
  • Largest 20 traffic flows in 2028
  • Airbus passenger aircraft demand and value: 2009 to 2028
  • Domestic China: high concentration and fastest growing cities (air traffic)
  • Large potential to increase propensity to travel: Trips per capita - 2008
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