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China’s 2010 passenger forecast upgraded by 3% to 16%. Profits flowing


China has upgraded its air passenger growth forecast for 2010, as predicted by CAPA, reflecting a better than expected recovery in international markets and sustained growth domestically. The CAAC is now predicting a 16% increase in total traffic this year to 266 million passengers, up from an earlier 13% growth estimate. Chinese airline profitability continues to soar in 2010, reflecting the economic boom and strong yuan. And despite a surprise 0.25% interest rate hike by China on 19-Oct-2010 (as authorities in Beijing seek to address rapid economic growth and a rising yuan), the airline traffic and earnings outlook remains robust. [2044 words]

Unlock the following content in this report:


  • 22.6 million passengers for Chinese airlines in Sep-2010
  • Load factors strengthening
  • International growth exceeds domestic growth in 2010
  • Growth for other North Asian carriers more muted; EVA and China seeing yield growth; Cathay premium revenues not yet back to pre-recession levels
  • China's 'big three' profits to continue in 3Q2010
  • China Southern expecting net profits to surge in nine months to Sep-2010
  • Outlook: Strong passenger growth ahead as propensity to travel increases

Graphs and data:

  • CAAC financial highlights: Sep-2010
  • CAAC passenger number and cargo growth: Jan-2009 to Sep-2010
  • Select Chinese carrier traffic highlights: Sep-2010
  • CAAC domestic vs international passenger number growth: Jan-2009 to Sep-2010
  • Select non-Chinese North Asian carrier traffic highlights: Sep-2010
  • Golden Week traffic updates: 01-Oct-2010 to 07-Oct-2010
  • Chinese mainland carriers’ passenger numbers and growth: 2003 to 2010F
  • Trips per capita: 2008
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