Airline industry profitability unlikely before end of 2011: Former Qantas CEO

Qantas Former CEO, Geoff Dixon, stated it could take until 2013 before the global aviation industry sees a return to 2008 revenue levels, with profitability unlikely to be restored until the end of 2011 (Australian Financial Review/The Australian, 05-Aug-09). Mr Dixon added that while the Asia Pacific region would likely be hardest hit by the economic downturn, the region is expected to lead the recovery. Mr Dixon stated that an unprecedented decline in global passenger revenue of approximately 13% is likely for the current 12 month period. The most developed markets in the Asia Pacific region (Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Australia and New Zealand) were expected to be the worst affected, with passenger revenue down by approximately 19%.

Mr Dixon also predicted further consolidation in the US and Europe and stated airlines outside Asia would see Asian airlines as attractive potential partners (The Australian, 05-Aug-09). Mr Dixon added that the current global alliance model could be superseded in the next five years.

Qantas: "Passenger revenue will, at some time, rebound, but Seabury forecasts that a return to real 2008 peak revenues may take until 2013 globally, and even longer in the developed markets of the US, Europe and Asia. The emerging markets in Asia, including China and India, will be the fastest to improve and will underpin the global recovery," Geoff Dixon, Former CEO. Source: The Australian, 05-Aug-09.