San Diego International Airport

Alaska continues to face challenges getting investors to acknowledge its solid financial performance

Alaska Air Group during the last few years has consistently outperformed its US carrier peers in a financial metric – return on invested capital (ROIC) – that is prevalent in discourse in other industries but has only surfaced in discussion among airline executives during the last few years. Since 2010 the carrier has exceeded its ROIC targets on an after tax basis and has posted annual profits for the last nine years. Despite its consistent profitability, Alaska’s robust financial performance is often overlooked by the investment community, leaving executives scratching their heads as to why the company’s consistent financial results are not more recognisable.

Even as Alaska delivers consistent profitability, questions often arise over the company’s growth prospects at its two subsidiaries – Alaska Airlines and Horizon Air (which now operates under the Alaska banner). The carrier holds an advantageous position as the leading airline in Seattle, where it can feed into long-haul flights operated by its partner Delta Air Lines. It also has a strong relationship with American Airlines, but it is not certain how that partnership will evolve once American and US Airways close on their merger and complete a roughly 18 month-long integration process. Alaska does have the opportunity to flesh out its domestic network, and remains bullish that it will still deliver sound financial results with planned annual capacity growth of 4% to 8% during the next few years.

US-Japan airline alliances become lopsided as JAL, ANA expand while US to shift to other markets

The anti-trust immunity alliances between All Nippon Airways and United Airlines as well as Japan Airlines and American Airlines are past the honeymoon phase. Whereas the airlines a decade ago were bullish on linking the mighty US with Japan Inc., today the latter's economy is still underperforming.

Japanese airlines are now ramping up US capacity to existing and new destinations as they seek to woo markets with their premium products, efficient hubs and services to secondary US cities, reducing connections.

But US carriers are expanding less than their Japanese partners, which impacts the competitive potential of the JVs, as Japanese carriers have far higher CASKs. The US airlines are also looking to diversify what United calls its "non-Japan Asia" network, a reflection of the growing importance of China. United will resume services to Taipei while American will expand to Seoul, but the pot of gold is mainland China.

Expansion there will be steady as slots are difficult to secure and airlines are dependent on next-generation aircraft to make secondary cities profitable. China services would likely be excluded from the JVs with Japanese carriers due to the Chinese regulatory environment – possibly spearheading the formation of new JVs. But that will depend on the pace of liberalisation.

Alaska and Southwest share a cautious outlook as expiring tax breaks could weaken demand

US carriers Alaska and Southwest conclude trends are pointing to solid demand at the start of 2013 despite the expiration of certain tax breaks threatening to dampen consumer appetite for travel. Both carriers cite favourable booking trends as overall industry capacity remains disciplined. But Alaska during 2013 will be one of the few carriers to increase its supply relative to the industry as it expects capacity growth of 7%-8% versus 2% growth for Southwest and virtually flat to negative growth among the large US network carriers.

Alaska appears poised to replicate the results it garnered from its higher than average capacity growth in 2012 of 6% compared with a range of negative 2% to 2% growth at US legacy airlines. While Southwest had 6% comparable capacity growth to Alaska during 2012, the Dallas-based carrier plans a 4ppt drop in capacity growth year-over-year to 2% for 2013. Despite the higher than average expansion of supply, Alaska grew its top-line revenues by 8% during 2012 to USD4.7 billion. Expenses grew 7% to USD4.1 billion, which helped lift the company’s operating income 18% to USD532 million.

Alaska and Frontier Airlines attempt to avoid competition in building up San Diego and Trenton

US carriers Alaska Airlines and Frontier appear to be satisfied with test routes they have launched from San Diego and Trenton, New Jersey during 4Q2012 as both airlines plan to make a push during 1Q2013 from each airport. Alaska is introducing its second transcontinental flight from San Diego to Boston in Mar-2013 followed by new Hawaii service in 2Q2013. Frontier, meanwhile, is making a push from Trenton to Florida during the northern hemisphere winter.

Frontier launched service from Trenton to Orlando in Nov-2012, and now is the lone commercial carrier serving the small airport close to the larger metro areas of Philadelphia and New York.

Alaska debuted its first transcontinental service from San Diego to the leisure destination of Orlando in Oct-2012. Both carriers characterised those forays as test cases in route expansion outside their core networks which are built around Seattle and Portland for Alaska and Denver for Frontier.

Frontier celebrates impressive turnaround but faces challenges in finding long-term suitors

Frontier Airlines deserves much credit regarding its efforts during the last year to transform itself into an ultra low-cost carrier, most recently evidenced by a 3% drop year-on-year in 3Q2012 unit costs. The airline has also sustained a solid revenue performance during a network revamp that eliminated its underperforming Kansas City and Milwaukee hubs in lieu of seizing on opportunities created by ongoing US industry consolidation.

But even as Frontier management has successfully executed a USD136 million cost improvement scheme it initiated in 2011 as part of a broader strategy by parent Republic Airways Holdings to separate the Frontier business, the carrier’s fate remains highly uncertain as the appetite for would-be buyers for airlines in the current macro-economic environment is presumably weak. Still, Republic’s executive management team has declared it is reasonably confident of sealing Frontier’s fate through a sale in early 2013.

Hawaiian’s revenues come under pressure from every region across its network

Warnings by Hawaiian Airlines over softening demand on its mainland US flights came to fruition in its 3Q2012 results as a solid top-line performance was muted by significant year-over-year decreases in unit revenue and yields. Pressure in some of the carrier’s new Asian markets also contributed to the declines, which will continue into 4Q2012 as year-over-year capacity growth, particularly in the San Francisco bay area and southern California, remains high.

Hawaiian recorded net income excluding unrealised gains from its fuel hedging programme of USD41 million during 3Q2012, a 35% increase from the previous year. Operating revenue grew 21% to USD549 million, while operating profit jumped 23% to USD75 million.

But those numbers were overshadowed by a 3.6% decline in yields and a 5.7% fall in passenger unit revenues year-over-year during 3Q2012. The company’s unit revenue decrease during the quarter was higher than the 1% to 4% decrease Hawaiian predicted in guidance released on 04-Sep-2012.