Philippine Airlines banks recovery on international expansion but faces uphill battle

This is the fourth part of a series of articles on the 2013 outlook for Philippine carriers. The third part, published on 3-Apr-2013, analysed the bleak outlook in the domestic market for the Philippine Airline (PAL) Group following its decision to exit the budget sector by transitioning PAL Express, formerly known as AirPhil, from low-cost to full-service regional carrier. This part looks at the international outlook for PAL, which has improved since a determination from ICAO in Mar-2013 that the Philippine authorities are now in compliance with its safety standards.

The ICAO determination should lead to the Philippines being removed from the EU blacklist and upgraded to Category 1 status by the US FAA, opening up expansion opportunities for PAL's long-haul operation. But the ICAO determination could also lead to new competition in the Philippines to Japan, South Korea and US markets.

PAL now faces only very limited competition from other Philippine carriers to Japan and no competition from local carriers in long-haul markets. But Cebu Pacific and other Philippine LCCs plan to pursue rapid expansion of their international operations regionally and, in the case of Cebu Pacific, in the medium/long-haul market.