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Chinese Investment in Europe's Airports: 2016

China may be planning to invest USD130 billion in its airports over the next 10-15 years, but both public and private enterprises within the country seem to be doing their best to match that figure in foreign investments. While Chinese companies have targeted Africa, the Caribbean, Latin America and other regions, Europe – actually one of the first continents to be homed in on by Chinese investors – is back in fashion again.

This report investigates who these investors are and where they are putting their money in Europe, with some examples from outside that continent. Not all of these investors have any sort of airport experience, by any means. The report coverage does not include any Chinese firm or entity investing or lending solely in China.

If you are a current CAPA member, contact your account manager to receive a copy of the report.

Format: PDF on receipt of payment.

Publication Date: 27-Jun-2016

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CAPA State of the Market 2016

We are constantly reminded of the fragility of aviation economics – from safety and security, right through to the vagaries of uncontrollable external costs. And, if that weren’t enough to deter the faint hearted, the industry is ringed by an unhelpful set of 70-year-old constraints on mergers and ownership, making rationalisation that extra bit harder.

Consequently, airlines struggle constantly to find ways to combat the barriers to industry rationalisation and extended market coverage – through global alliances, equity purchases, cross border joint ventures, obscure corporate structures and more. Yet the unnecessary obstacle race continues.

CAPA's State of the Market 2016 report evaluates the key issues influencing aviation development through 2016 - including our World Airline Profit Outlook - and key regional outlooks for Southeast Asia, South Asia, South Pacific, North Asia, Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, North America and Latin America to help guide decision-making and understanding in your business.

If you are a current CAPA member, contact your account manager to receive a copy of the report.

Format: PDF on receipt of payment.

Publication Date: 01-Jun-2016

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IATA AGM CAPA Daily - Friday, 03-Jun-2016

The third edition of CAPA Daily at the IATA 2016 AGM, including over 300 news briefs from the CAPA team recapping what you need to know from Day 1 and Day 2.

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 03-Jun-2016.

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IATA AGM CAPA Daily - Thursday, 02-Jun-2016

The second edition of CAPA Daily at the IATA 2016 AGM, including six analysis reports from CAPA's global team.

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 02-Jun-2016.

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IATA AGM CAPA Daily - Wednesday, 01-Jun-2016

The first edition of CAPA Daily at the IATA 2016 AGM, including 521 headlines from CAPA’s daily alerts.

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 01-Jun-2016.

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Myanmar Aviation Outlook: 2016

Over the last three years CAPA has published annual reports on the dynamic Myanmar market, which has undergone rapid transformation since Myanmar liberalised in early 2012. In this 2016 report CAPA provides a comprehensive analysis of current conditions along with 50 charts and graphs highlighting how the market has grown and performed.

Myanmar’s aviation sector is now at a critical juncture as a new democratic government, which took office at the end of Mar-2016, considers potential policy changes. Both the domestic and international market have been oversupplied in recent years, impacting load factors and profitability. The current domestic landscape, which includes 10 airlines for a market of less than 3 million passengers, seems unsustainable while the international market has been impacted by aggressive expansion from foreign airlines along with intensifying competition between Myanmar Airways International (MAI) and Myanmar National Airlines (MNA).

The market is ripe for a shakeup, which should ultimately improve conditions and profitability. Myanmar has huge potential but for at least the short term faces monumental challenges.

This report look in detail at Myanmar’s international and domestic market. The international market is currently served by 24 foreign airlines – with three more about to launch services – along with two main local airlines. There are separate chapters on the outlook for foreign airlines, the two main local international airlines (MAI and MNA) and the domestic airlines. There is a final chapter on airport development followed by three sections of supplemental charts providing further details on airports, airlines and tourism.

If you are a current CAPA member, contact your account manager to receive a copy of the report.

Format: The report is available in soft copy only and will be e-mailed following purchase.

Publication Date: 26-Apr-2016

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CAPA/UATP Americas Airfare & Aviation Report: Aviation Edition

CAPA and UATP are pleased to announce the launch of the CAPA/UATP Americas Airfare & Aviation Report: Aviation Edition. The report is the first in-depth report in the North American aviation industry, covering capacity and airfare benchmarks for the top 10 routes in the US and Canada. The report includes specialised airfare benchmarking analysis utilising fares data from UATP, complemented by aviation insights from CAPA.

Key conclusions of the Americas Airfare & Aviation Report: Aviation/Corporate Travel Edition report are as follows:

  • Significantly lower fuel costs should again drive record profitability for North American airlines in 2016, but pricing softness remains a looming threat as every carrier operating in the region plans capacity expansion;
  • Data provided from UATP showed an average decline of 15.25% in ticket prices during 4Q2015 as compared to 4Q2014. The largest pricing movements were seen on Chicago O’Hare to New York (La Guardia) with a fall of 27.04%, followed by Los Angeles to Dallas with a decline of just over 25% though core trunk routes remained steady;
  • The planned increases in capacity, coupled with negative passenger unit revenue growth that is projected to last through at least 1H2016, are driving down valuations of North American airlines even as those companies are posting record profits;
  • Investors remain unconvinced airlines operating in North America have truly transformed to build durable business models capable of withstanding the inevitable exogenous shocks that rattle the industry;
  • The dichotomy of record airline profits and sustained investor trepidation is likely to linger in the North American market for the foreseeable future. With no frame of reference to ensure those companies have an ability to sustain their profitability, valuations could continue to suffer.

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Inflight Experience in Australia and Trans-Pacific: A benchmarking study

Trans-Pacific product offerings have undergone a significant change in product quality over the last five years. With variations as large as a United Airlines Boeing 747-400 against a Qantas Airways A380 commonplace, in 2016 there is a relatively identical product offering across the board. An exception remains in Premium Economy cabins, where the business-lite product of Qantas is against – essentially – slightly extra legroom on its US counterparts.

The race for the best product remains core in the battle to retain high-yield business passengers and the entrance of American Airlines’ 777-300ER alongside United’s 787-9 and the refurbishment of Virgin Australia’s 777-300ER fleet provides new product benchmarks to challenge Qantas. Air Canada’s refurbishment of its 777 fleet adds premium economy while refreshing the economy class passenger experience off an already high base. American is the only carrier other than Qantas operating a first class product, which – although high quality – does not compare to products offered by Middle East carriers or some Asian carriers in what is now a very high benchmark for first.

Older business class seats travelling across the Pacific were designed when consumer expectations were less advanced. Qantas’ Skybed improved on the era of recliner seats and was an industry leader at its time of introduction. However the Skybed may quickly find itself at the back of a very competitive pack - especially as Virgin Australia completes its refurbishment and United moves to all-787 operations across the Pacific. Qantas states it has no plans to retrofit its Business Suite (based off the Aero Vantage XL seat) on its Boeing 747- 400 or A380 fleets.

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 12 February 2016

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Iran Airport Investment Outlook: A market with enormous potential

Iran Airports Holding Company (IAHC), a state-owned enterprise under Iran’s Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, plans to undertake a significant amount of airport development over the next 15 years. Projects are planned to take place in Mehrabad, Esfahan, Tabriz, Mashhad, Shiraz and the plan includes new airports in Ahvaz and Bushehr.

Even before the lifting of sanctions, Iran has had annual passenger traffic of 47 million through 67 airports, with traffic growth of 6% p/a. Speaking at the CAPA Asia Aviation Summit in Singapore on 23-Nov-2015, Ahmadreza Bayati Doosti, IAHC Deputy International Cooperation, said that approximately USD3 billion in investment opportunities were available in airport infrastructure during 2016.

Meanwhile, Iranian airlines anticipate demand for 300 aircraft within 5 years, and 500 within 10. Tehran could potentially emerge as an international hub to rival those in the Gulf, though its carriers lack the brands to support such ambitious expansion at this stage. That said – so did Qatar and Emirates some 30 years ago, and just over 10 years ago Etihad Airways didn’t even exist.

That there are opportunities waiting for both strategic and portfolio investors in post-sanctions Iran – a country of almost 80 million people, holder of the world’s fourth largest proven crude oil reserves and its second-largest reserves of mostly untapped gas – is undeniable. That those opportunities will come to be realised in the airport sector earlier than in oil and gas, where risk-aversion often equates with opportunity losses that are enormous, is very unlikely. Investors in Iran’s airport sector should be prepared to play the long game, and not to rush in without thorough preparation

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 15 December 2015

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Country Report: Iran

Aviation is only one part of the renewed engagement between Iran and the global community but represents a significant opportunity for the companies involved. As is to be expected with aviation, the indirect benefits are multiplied as aviation growth supports economic growth by facilitating business, trade and tourism. Although there are questions still to be resolved around exactly how much aviation growth Iran can achieve in the short-term, there is no doubt the medium and long term story is compelling, given its population of almost 80 million people.

Iran has a USD404 billion economy that has been likened to “Turkey with oil”, a young and well-educated population of 79 million, and a stock
market that, despite sanctions, already has similar capitalisation to Poland’s. The country has had recent success with taming inflation, steadying
unemployment and stabilising the currency (Rial).

Much discussion of Iran’s aviation development has focused on replacing older aircraft. This is sorely needed. However, with the aggressive fleet induction time frames given by Iran, clearly Iran’s airlines will grow, making up for lost opportunities and seizing new ones from the economic growth that will result from the lifting of sanctions. This will have implications for the foreign airlines serving Iran that have carved lucrative niches, with handsome yields. For the government, finding the appropriate balance between liberal access and supporting growth of a national aviation capability will be critical to the impact that aviation has on the country’s economy and the speed of its ‘reintroduction’ into the world.

While the risks of doing business with Iran appear to be dissuading serious economic openings at the moment, the country has been well on the radar of interested investors for much longer, due to ever-present market potential coupled with current momentum, and expansion within Iran and the wider region.

Format: PDF download.

Publication Date: 15 October 2015

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CAPA India Aviation Outlook FY2016

Leading airlines, airports, investors and suppliers use the CAPA India Aviation Outlook to shape their strategies and decisions in the market for the year ahead. Coverage includes:

  • Strategy: review of business models and strategic plans of all Indian airlines;
  • Financial and operating analysis: comprehensive data for every carrier e.g. traffic; load factors; market shares; fares; unit revenues and costs; utilisation; P&L and balance sheet analysis;
  • International operations: detailed assessment of network strategies, market access and competition;
  • Forecasts: for traffic, capacity and yields; airline profit and loss projections for FY2016;
  • Fleets: induction plans and expected new orders;
  • Funding: capital raising plans, IPOs and likelihood of foreign airline investment;
  • Risk assessments: for each Indian carrier;
  • Start-ups: evaluation of the prospects for new entrants, particularly in the regional sector;
  • Policy & regulation: expected reforms under the new government which could impact aviation;
  • Privatisation: latest status of PPP and greenfield airport projects;
  • Ancillary sectors: outlook for ground handling, maintenance, training and general aviation.

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Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Publication Date: 31 October 2015

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Australian Aviation and Airfare Analysis 2015

The Australian Aviation and Airfare Analysis, produced by 4th Dimension, Flight Centre Travel Group's new business travel consulting division and CAPA - Centre for Aviation, provides an in-depth review of the domestic aviation industry and includes the results of a specialised airfare benchmarking analysis.

The report includes an evaluation of both the current and prospective market trends in Australia, focusing on areas such as domestic airline capacity, scheduling and performance.

Format: PDF on receipt of payment.

Publication Date: May-2015

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CAPA Global Airline Forecast

CAPA - Centre for Aviation has released its latest ‘Global Airline Forecast’, which predicts a 7.1% increase in world RPK traffic in 2016. The product is part of a broadening of CAPA’s portfolio of publications and services available for its Members.

The outlook report analyses three key drivers of the global airline profit cycle – capacity levels, the economic cycle and oil prices - as part of a model developed to determine CAPA’s outlook for traffic (RPK) and airline operating margin forecasts.

CAPA’s Chief Financial Analyst Jonathan Wober, said: “CAPA’s base case scenario sees world RPK growth rising above its long term trend rate and airline operating margins approaching historic peak levels. For an industry that has not covered its cost of capital since 1966, historic peak margins are not good enough. Nevertheless, the highly cyclical nature of industry profitability has always meant that even these margin levels have never been sustained, but have soon been followed by a downturn.”

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CAPA CASK Airline Unit Costs Report 2015

One of the key competitive dynamics in the aviation industry is the relative cost efficiency of different airlines, as measured by cost per available seat kilometre (CASK). CAPA’s new CASK database plots CASK against average trip length, giving its members an important graphical tool for comparing competing airlines and highlighting broad differences between them.

The CAPA CASK Database covers over 100 airlines and airline groups globally, including the large majority of the world’s biggest airlines.

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Low Cost Airports and Terminals Report 2015

In 2006 and 2009 CAPA published a popular management report on Low Cost Airports and Terminals (LCATs). At the time, LCATs were very much in favour within the budget airline business as that segment grew rapidly worldwide. Less than a decade on, the trend is much different.

With a focus on Asia Pacific low cost facilities, the 2015 report outlines some of the key developments in the LCC sector as they affect the way airports operate. The report also looks at examples of low cost airports and terminals across the world.

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Airport Finance & Privatisation Review 2014/15 Volume 2

The CAPA 2014 Airport Privatisation Review was published in Jan-2015, followed by a much bigger management report on FY2014 in Mar-2015. Despite both these reports having been published in the recent past it is pertinent to revisit the subject now. Both of them referred to a continuing paucity of deals but there has since been a discernible uptick in both actual and putative ones. While money is still tight it is perhaps not as tight as it was, infrastructure bonds are popular and with interest rates low just about any investment of this kind is likely to provide a better return, albeit with greater risk. With traffic figures rising and airport EBITDAs rising, along with the multiples when they are sold, air transport infrastructure is coming back into fashion. What is more, the activity is across the board - in PPPs, BOTs, trade sales, even a couple of IPOs.

But some caution needs to be exercised. As ever, national and regional economies and exogenous world events – or Black Swans if you prefer - will dictate airport values and their investment potential every bit as much – or more so – than the start up of a handful of new routes. All but one of the BRICs for example (i.e. India) have lost their patina recently and in the case of Russia the stand-off with the west over Ukraine means not only that aviation growth will be severely diminished there by economic sanctions but also that a military confrontation could take place. Aeroflot just cancelled its order for 22 B787s and is also reviewing its order for 22 A350s

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CAPA India Ground Handling Report 2014

The CAPA India Ground Handling Report 2014 is the most comprehensive study ever conducted on the ground handling sector in India and represents months of field research and analysis of difficult to source data. For individual companies to conduct a similar exercise would be extremely challenging and could cost tens of thousands of dollars.

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Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Publication Date: 19 May 2014

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CAPA India Business & General Aviation Report 2014

The CAPA India Business & General Aviation Report 2014 is based on comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research across the sector. We interviewed key stakeholders, rigorously compiled and analysed data, reviewed government policy proposals and studied traffic trends to arrive at an accurate picture of this often neglected sector. 

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Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Publication Date: 29 August 2014

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CAPA India Aviation Outlook: 2013/14 - Relighting the Flame

CAPA's Annual India Aviation Outlook is keenly anticipated by the industry each year as the leading analysis of the direction of one of the world’s most important emerging markets. CAPA has a strong and established track record in accurately identifying key trends and developments in the Indian market, both on an annual and long term basis. We operate India’s leading dedicated aviation advisory and research practice offering unrivalled analysis and data across the value chain.

Our India Aviation Outlook is used by the leading industry players to shape their strategies and decisions in the market. The 2013/14 edition will be released on 22 July 2013. Click here for more information.

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Global

Uncertainty has become the new normal – and risk reduction takes on a high priority for many airlines as Europe’s economy stutters and the US struggles for traction.

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Europe

The European airline market has a number of dividing lines. There is little growth on routes within the continent, but steady growth on long-haul...

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Latin America

Latin America's market has been characterised over the Last decade by rapid growth, consolidation and significantly improved profitability...

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Middle East

Even for a region developing as fast as the Middle East, few years could match the changes wrought during 2012...

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Africa

Africa is poised to be the next growth story as the world turns to the continent’s bountiful resources, ranging from minerals to oil and water...

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North America

North America is on the brink of reaching full maturity as the planned merger between American and US Airways and the previous tie-ups among the country’s airlines will result in...

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North Asia

North Asia is one of the few regions where most full service airlines are growing capacity. But the carriers are now looking to complement their expansion drive with definition...

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South Asia

Indian aviation is seeing signs of revival after another difficult year marked by continuing losses, a 3% decline in traffic and the exit of Kingfisher...

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South Pacific

South Pacific carriers are emerging from a period of rebuilding their long-haul networks as they redirect their focus to Asia and Pacific Rim...

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Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia continues to be a region of rapid growth driven by low cost carriers, including budget subsidiaries and affiliates of full-service carriers...

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India Aviation Outlook 2012/13 Extracts

CAPA’s annual outlook for Indian aviation is widely regarded as the leading analysis of the direction of one of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets, providing invaluable perspectives for any business with interests in the sector.

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North Asia LCC and New Age Airlines 2012

Asian aviation is undergoing a transformation that is not merely once in a generation – it is a once in history change. There is no precedent for the scale or scope of what is happening in the region.

And finally, many years behind the rest of the world, low cost carriers are making their presence felt in the highly populated northeast corner, as Japan, South Korea and China start to open their skies and broaden their strategies away from the old protectionism.

CAPA - Centre for Aviation has today released a 400-page report on low cost and new age airlines in the North Asian region. This is free for download as a CAPA contribution to furthering understanding in this exciting new area.

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LCCs in North Asia

'The World of Airlines: Changing Times' is the title of this presentation to WIT Japan in late May 2012 by CAPA Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison. Suddenly, everyone’s launching low cost airlines in Japan. Peach Aviation, the ANA subsidiary, took off in March. Based in Kansai, it is flying two routes to New Chitose (Sapporo) and Fukuoka. ANA’s also formed a joint venture with AirAsia to form AirAsia Japan, which is eyeing an August take-off from Narita. Jetstar Japan is between Jetstar and Japan Airlines and that’s taking off July 3, also with Narita as its base. How will all this activity transform Japanese aviation?

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India Travel Retail Report 2012 Extracts

This ground-breaking report combines in-depth analysis of aviation trends, interviews with key industry stakeholders and the largest ever travel retail survey ever conducted in India, of more than 7,000 passengers, to present an outlook for the sector through to 2021.

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Farnborough 2012 Wrap: Lessors to the fore

It may have been Boeing’s turn to shine at this year’s major European air show, at Farnborough, handsomely out-selling Airbus with orders and commitments for 396 aircraft versus Airbus’ 115 new sales and commitments, but it was the prominence of aircraft lessors in the order-making that was the real talking point.

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Low Cost Airports & Terminals Report 2009

The 2009 report contains over 300 pages of coverage of Low Cost Airport Terminals developments worldwide. The report draws heavily from experiences, examples and case studies involving European airports - where the most intensive LCC activity has occurred over the past decade.

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Global LCC Outlook Report 2009

The global low cost airline movement has undergone a fundamental change of direction in the past two years, but the biggest shifts in the model are coming, according to this landmark new study.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2009

Provides an overview of the region's aviation industry and prospects, plus country-by-country analyses for the approximately 20 Asia Pacific countries. Includes monthly airport, airline and tourism arrival statistics.

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Middle East Aviation Outlook 2009

Middle East Aviation Outlook is CAPA’s 150-page report reviewing the short and long term development trends and forecasts for this dynamic region. It covers airport development and capacity trends and investment and key issues such as privatisation, liberalisation and ATM harmonisation.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2008

The perfect storm is brewing in 2008! The sweet spot of late 2007 is quickly being replaced with the sour taste of the global credit crunch and US economic downturn, according to CAPA's Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook for 2008.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2007

Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2007: Dawn of a New Era! In this year's report CAPA reviewed the full frontal attack on flag carriers that was unfolding as the LCC story continued to develop.

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Global Airport Privatisation 2007

Global Airport Privatisation, a key CAPA management report, will interest both those with prior knowledge of the industry and those looking for new insights into this exciting and challenging sector.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2006

Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2006: Benign but Unpredictable. The report gives a healthy outlook for Asia Pacific airlines as conditions "normalised".

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2005

For Asia Pacific airlines, 2004 was an oasis in a desert of global bad news. While operators in Europe and North America licked their wounds, the region's carriers moved rapidly from recovery to robust growth and profitability. That growth should consolidate in 2005.

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CAPA Yearbook 2014

CAPA World Aviation Yearbook 2014

  • Global overview - Petrol and partnerships
  • Analysis - Air travel correlation with GDP growth
  • 10 regional data & analysis
  • Key data of each region’s selected airlines"

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2004

2004, the Year of the Monkey, will be a year of massive opportunity for Asia’s airlines, airports and the tourism industries. Indeed, it could and should be the best year ever. In the aviation and tourism industries, there will be more valuable investment opportunities in this region than in the rest of the world.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2003

In this Post-SARS special outlook released in August 2003, CAPA looks at the prospects towards 2004. The recent optimism was damaged by SARS and created an underlay of the need to reinvent to survive a frenetic environment.

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The Essential China Airports Book 2004

Covers operational, traffic and construction details of 140 airports currently in operation, pus details of construction of over 100 other airports in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2002

The world entered into a potentially prolonged economic downturn in 2001 and this was dramatically deepened by the events of September 11 and their impact on business, consumer and traveller confidence and behaviour. It will be some time before the good news outweighs the bad.

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China's International Aviation Outlook

China's leading airports are on the cusp of strong international growth, with several new routes to be launched in the coming 12 to 24 months. Growth will be driven by foreign and local needs: countries will have greater needs to further link with China while locally there will be an increasing propensity to travel among the Chinese population as incomes rise.

CAPA's COO, Derek Sadubin, delivered this presentation to the TFWA Asia Pacific event in Singapore in May 2012. The contents of this presentation were also covered in an article available on the CAPA site: New routes to China to flourish in the next few years

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Low Cost Airlines in the Asia Pacific Region: 2002

The original CAPA report that predicted the boom that lay ahead: Low Cost Airlines in the Asia Pacific Region: An Exceptional Intra-Regional Traffic Growth Opportunity. A compelling insight into the transformation that lay ahead for Asia Pacific aviation.

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Asian market overview and outlook: 2012

Asia is where all the action is; the region's economies are performing well, airports are growing rapidly, low-cost long-haul momentum is picking up and legacy carriers are opting for multi-brand strategies. This makes for big changes in the region's ground handling segment.

Brendan Sobie, CAPA's Chief Analyst delivered this presentation to the 5th Asian Ground Handling International Conference in Bangkok in March 2012.

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