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CAPA India Aviation Outlook FY2016

Leading airlines, airports, investors and suppliers use the CAPA India Aviation Outlook to shape their strategies and decisions in the market for the year ahead. Coverage includes:

  • Strategy: review of business models and strategic plans of all Indian airlines;
  • Financial and operating analysis: comprehensive data for every carrier e.g. traffic; load factors; market shares; fares; unit revenues and costs; utilisation; P&L and balance sheet analysis;
  • International operations: detailed assessment of network strategies, market access and competition;
  • Forecasts: for traffic, capacity and yields; airline profit and loss projections for FY2016;
  • Fleets: induction plans and expected new orders;
  • Funding: capital raising plans, IPOs and likelihood of foreign airline investment;
  • Risk assessments: for each Indian carrier;
  • Start-ups: evaluation of the prospects for new entrants, particularly in the regional sector;
  • Policy & regulation: expected reforms under the new government which could impact aviation;
  • Privatisation: latest status of PPP and greenfield airport projects;
  • Ancillary sectors: outlook for ground handling, maintenance, training and general aviation.

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Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Early Bird Discount: The standard price is US4,555, however an early bird rate of US$3,555 is available for orders and payments received by 14-Sep-2015.

Publication Date: 14 September 2015

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CAPA India Ground Handling Report 2014

The CAPA India Ground Handling Report 2014 is the most comprehensive study ever conducted on the ground handling sector in India and represents months of field research and analysis of difficult to source data. For individual companies to conduct a similar exercise would be extremely challenging and could cost tens of thousands of dollars. Issues covered in the report include:

  • Comprehensive analysis of the policy and regulatory framework in India;
  • Market size and composition by domestic and international segments, and by airport for the ten largest airports;
  • Forecasts for traffic, ground handling market value and airport-wise profitability through to FY2023;
  • In-depth strategic, operational and financial analysis of the leading handling companies including SWOT analysis and risk and opportunities;
  • Research on how the handlers are perceived by their prospective customers;
  • Quantification of fully allocated costs per turnaround at the top ten airports and by aircraft type;
  • Break-up of ground handling costs by key line items;
  • Prospects for tie-ups between airlines and ground handlers at the metro airports;
  • Identification of key issues expected to emerge during the transition to outsourced handling;
  • Potential for the emergence of new operating models;
  • Outlook for consolidation and mergers and acquisitions including prospective new investors;
  • Prospects for additional handling concessions at metro and non-metro airports, including an assessment of the challenges to viability;
  • Airline strategies and broader industry environment issues which could impact the handling market including an assessment of overall key risks.

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Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Publication Date: 19 May 2014

Buy Report for USD 8,555

CAPA India Business & General Aviation Report 2014

The CAPA India Business & General Aviation Report 2014 is based on comprehensive quantitative and qualitative research across the sector. We interviewed key stakeholders, rigorously compiled and analysed data, reviewed government policy proposals and studied traffic trends to arrive at an accurate picture of this often neglected sector. Topics covered in the report include:

  • Structure of the GA market including traffic, fleets, equipment type, operators and business models;
  • Market demand and operations including key drivers, products,  pricing, cost structures and profitability;
  • Review of ground infrastructure including airports, heliports, FBOs, VIP terminals and planned developments;
  • Analysis of airspace issues including availability of dedicated corridors and operating restrictions;
  • Review of the policy, regulatory and fiscal frameworks within which GA operates and the impact this has on viability and investment;
  • Availability of aircraft finance from Indian banks and non-bank financial institutions;
  • Status of maintenance, repair and overhaul services available in-country and the capabilities of key players;
  • Manpower requirements and the need to address the shortage of skills and training;
  • CAPA’s 10 year GA fleet forecast and poll of key stakeholders on the outlook for the sector.

View a sample and ToC

Format: The report is available in hard copy only and will be couriered to purchasers, shipping is included.

Publication Date: 29 August 2014

Buy Report for USD 6,555

Australian Aviation and Airfare Analysis 2015

Published: May 2015

The Australian Aviation and Airfare Analysis, produced by 4th Dimension, Flight Centre Travel Group's new business travel consulting division and CAPA - Centre for Aviation, provides an in-depth review of the domestic aviation industry and includes the results of a specialised airfare benchmarking analysis.

The report includes an evaluation of both the current and prospective market trends in Australia, focusing on areas such as domestic airline capacity, scheduling and performance.

Format: PDF on receipt of payment

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Airport Finance & Privatisation Review 2014/15 Volume 2

The CAPA 2014 Airport Privatisation Review was published in Jan-2015, followed by a much bigger management report on FY2014 in Mar-2015. Despite both these reports having been published in the recent past it is pertinent to revisit the subject now. Both of them referred to a continuing paucity of deals but there has since been a discernible uptick in both actual and putative ones. While money is still tight it is perhaps not as tight as it was, infrastructure bonds are popular and with interest rates low just about any investment of this kind is likely to provide a better return, albeit with greater risk. With traffic figures rising and airport EBITDAs rising, along with the multiples when they are sold, air transport infrastructure is coming back into fashion. What is more, the activity is across the board - in PPPs, BOTs, trade sales, even a couple of IPOs.

But some caution needs to be exercised. As ever, national and regional economies and exogenous world events – or Black Swans if you prefer - will dictate airport values and their investment potential every bit as much – or more so – than the start up of a handful of new routes. All but one of the BRICs for example (i.e. India) have lost their patina recently and in the case of Russia the stand-off with the west over Ukraine means not only that aviation growth will be severely diminished there by economic sanctions but also that a military confrontation could take place. Aeroflot just cancelled its order for 22 B787s and is also reviewing its order for 22 A350s

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CAPA CASK Airline Unit Costs Report 2015

One of the key competitive dynamics in the aviation industry is the relative cost efficiency of different airlines, as measured by cost per available seat kilometre (CASK). CAPA’s new CASK database plots CASK against average trip length, giving its members an important graphical tool for comparing competing airlines and highlighting broad differences between them.

A direct comparison of CASK, or unit cost, for different airlines is not straightforward as it varies with the average distance flown. In general, the cost
of producing a seat kilometre falls as average trip length increases since fixed costs are amortised over more seat kilometres and variable costs, such as fuel, are more efficiently consumed in longer flights. Plotting CASK versus average trip length allows the relative cost efficiency of different airlines to be compared visually.

The CAPA CASK Database covers over 100 airlines and airline groups globally, including the large majority of the world’s biggest airlines.

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Low Cost Airports and Terminals Report 2015

The CAPA Low Cost Airports and Terminals 2015 report follows similar reports in 2006 and 2009.

With a focus on Asia Pacific low cost facilities, the report outlines some of the key developments in the LCC sector as they affect the way airports operate. The report also looks at examples of low cost airports and terminals across the world.

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CAPA Global Airline Forecast

CAPA - Centre for Aviation has released its latest ‘Global Airline Forecast’, which predicts a 7.1% increase in world RPK traffic in 2016. The product is part of a broadening of CAPA’s portfolio of publications and services available for its Members.

The outlook report analyses three key drivers of the global airline profit cycle – capacity levels, the economic cycle and oil prices - as part of a model developed to determine CAPA’s outlook for traffic (RPK) and airline operating margin forecasts.

CAPA’s Chief Financial Analyst Jonathan Wober, said: “CAPA’s base case scenario sees world RPK growth rising above its long term trend rate and airline operating margins approaching historic peak levels. For an industry that has not covered its cost of capital since 1966, historic peak margins are not good enough. Nevertheless, the highly cyclical nature of industry profitability has always meant that even these margin levels have never been sustained, but have soon been followed by a downturn.”

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Myanmar Aviation Market Report

This report on the Myanmar aviation market looks at the highly competitive domestic airline sector, where there are now 10 competitors, and also analyses the international market, including the expansion plans of the recently rebranded Myanmar National Airlines, which is the leading domestic carrier and plans to re-launch international flights in Aug-2015 after a 22 year hiatus.

The report looks at how competition has further intensified in Myanmar’s domestic market as two more airlines have launched services while Air Mandalay has resumed operations after a six-month hiatus. There are now 10 airlines operating domestic scheduled services in Myanmar, a staggering figure for a market of only 2.2 annual million passengers. On most main trunk routes competition is fierce with as up to eight carriers competing, often with nearly identical schedules. Consolidation seems inevitable and several airlines in Myanmar have been seeking new investors.
Growth in Myanmar’s international market is starting to slow significantly and will likely end 2015 in the single digits, ending a streak of five consecutive years of at least 20% growth. Not a single foreign airline has launched services to Myanmar over the last 18 months and several of the 22 foreign carriers currently serving the market have cut capacity in recent months. Myanmar’s two main international carriers have also reduced capacity. But several domestic carriers are planning to launch international services, which could lead to over capacity on several routes as the growth indemand has started to slow significantly.

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CAPA Yearbook 2014

CAPA World Aviation Yearbook 2014

  • Global overview - Petrol and partnerships
  • Analysis - Air travel correlation with GDP growth
  • 10 regional data & analysis
  • Key data of each region’s selected airlines"

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Uncertainty has become the new normal – and risk reduction takes on a high priority for many airlines as Europe’s economy stutters and the US struggles for traction.

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Africa is poised to be the next growth story as the world turns to the continent’s bountiful resources, ranging from minerals to oil and water...

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The European airline market has a number of dividing lines. There is little growth on routes within the continent, but steady growth on long-haul...

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Latin America

Latin America's market has been characterised over the Last decade by rapid growth, consolidation and significantly improved profitability...

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Middle East

Even for a region developing as fast as the Middle East, few years could match the changes wrought during 2012...

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North America

North America is on the brink of reaching full maturity as the planned merger between American and US Airways and the previous tie-ups among the country’s airlines will result in...

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North Asia

North Asia is one of the few regions where most full service airlines are growing capacity. But the carriers are now looking to complement their expansion drive with definition...

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South Asia

Indian aviation is seeing signs of revival after another difficult year marked by continuing losses, a 3% decline in traffic and the exit of Kingfisher...

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South Pacific

South Pacific carriers are emerging from a period of rebuilding their long-haul networks as they redirect their focus to Asia and Pacific Rim...

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Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia continues to be a region of rapid growth driven by low cost carriers, including budget subsidiaries and affiliates of full-service carriers...

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CAPA India Aviation Outlook: 2013/14 - Relighting the Flame

CAPA's Annual India Aviation Outlook is keenly anticipated by the industry each year as the leading analysis of the direction of one of the world’s most important emerging markets. CAPA has a strong and established track record in accurately identifying key trends and developments in the Indian market, both on an annual and long term basis. We operate India’s leading dedicated aviation advisory and research practice offering unrivalled analysis and data across the value chain.

Our India Aviation Outlook is used by the leading industry players to shape their strategies and decisions in the market. The 2013/14 edition will be released on 22 July 2013. Click here for more information.

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North Asia LCC and New Age Airlines 2012

Asian aviation is undergoing a transformation that is not merely once in a generation – it is a once in history change. There is no precedent for the scale or scope of what is happening in the region.

And finally, many years behind the rest of the world, low cost carriers are making their presence felt in the highly populated northeast corner, as Japan, South Korea and China start to open their skies and broaden their strategies away from the old protectionism.

CAPA - Centre for Aviation has today released a 400-page report on low cost and new age airlines in the North Asian region. This is free for download as a CAPA contribution to furthering understanding in this exciting new area.

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Farnborough 2012 Wrap: Lessors to the fore

It may have been Boeing’s turn to shine at this year’s major European air show, at Farnborough, handsomely out-selling Airbus with orders and commitments for 396 aircraft versus Airbus’ 115 new sales and commitments, but it was the prominence of aircraft lessors in the order-making that was the real talking point.

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India Aviation Outlook 2012/13 Extracts

CAPA’s annual outlook for Indian aviation is widely regarded as the leading analysis of the direction of one of the world’s fastest growing aviation markets, providing invaluable perspectives for any business with interests in the sector.

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India Travel Retail Report 2012 Extracts

This ground-breaking report combines in-depth analysis of aviation trends, interviews with key industry stakeholders and the largest ever travel retail survey ever conducted in India, of more than 7,000 passengers, to present an outlook for the sector through to 2021.

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LCCs in North Asia

'The World of Airlines: Changing Times' is the title of this presentation to WIT Japan in late May 2012 by CAPA Executive Chairman, Peter Harbison. Suddenly, everyone’s launching low cost airlines in Japan. Peach Aviation, the ANA subsidiary, took off in March. Based in Kansai, it is flying two routes to New Chitose (Sapporo) and Fukuoka. ANA’s also formed a joint venture with AirAsia to form AirAsia Japan, which is eyeing an August take-off from Narita. Jetstar Japan is between Jetstar and Japan Airlines and that’s taking off July 3, also with Narita as its base. How will all this activity transform Japanese aviation?

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Asian market overview and outlook: 2012

Asia is where all the action is; the region's economies are performing well, airports are growing rapidly, low-cost long-haul momentum is picking up and legacy carriers are opting for multi-brand strategies. This makes for big changes in the region's ground handling segment.

Brendan Sobie, CAPA's Chief Analyst delivered this presentation to the 5th Asian Ground Handling International Conference in Bangkok in March 2012.

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China's International Aviation Outlook

China's leading airports are on the cusp of strong international growth, with several new routes to be launched in the coming 12 to 24 months. Growth will be driven by foreign and local needs: countries will have greater needs to further link with China while locally there will be an increasing propensity to travel among the Chinese population as incomes rise.

CAPA's COO, Derek Sadubin, delivered this presentation to the TFWA Asia Pacific event in Singapore in May 2012. The contents of this presentation were also covered in an article available on the CAPA site: New routes to China to flourish in the next few years

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Low Cost Airports & Terminals Report 2009

The 2009 report contains over 300 pages of coverage of Low Cost Airport Terminals developments worldwide. The report draws heavily from experiences, examples and case studies involving European airports - where the most intensive LCC activity has occurred over the past decade.

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Global LCC Outlook Report 2009

The global low cost airline movement has undergone a fundamental change of direction in the past two years, but the biggest shifts in the model are coming, according to this landmark new study.

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Middle East Aviation Outlook 2009

Middle East Aviation Outlook is CAPA’s 150-page report reviewing the short and long term development trends and forecasts for this dynamic region. It covers airport development and capacity trends and investment and key issues such as privatisation, liberalisation and ATM harmonisation.

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Global Airport Privatisation 2007

Global Airport Privatisation, a key CAPA management report, will interest both those with prior knowledge of the industry and those looking for new insights into this exciting and challenging sector.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2009

Provides an overview of the region's aviation industry and prospects, plus country-by-country analyses for the approximately 20 Asia Pacific countries. Includes monthly airport, airline and tourism arrival statistics.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2008

The perfect storm is brewing in 2008! The sweet spot of late 2007 is quickly being replaced with the sour taste of the global credit crunch and US economic downturn, according to CAPA's Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook for 2008.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2007

Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2007: Dawn of a New Era! In this year's report CAPA reviewed the full frontal attack on flag carriers that was unfolding as the LCC story continued to develop.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2006

Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2006: Benign but Unpredictable. The report gives a healthy outlook for Asia Pacific airlines as conditions "normalised".

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2005

For Asia Pacific airlines, 2004 was an oasis in a desert of global bad news. While operators in Europe and North America licked their wounds, the region's carriers moved rapidly from recovery to robust growth and profitability. That growth should consolidate in 2005.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2004

2004, the Year of the Monkey, will be a year of massive opportunity for Asia’s airlines, airports and the tourism industries. Indeed, it could and should be the best year ever. In the aviation and tourism industries, there will be more valuable investment opportunities in this region than in the rest of the world.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2003

In this Post-SARS special outlook released in August 2003, CAPA looks at the prospects towards 2004. The recent optimism was damaged by SARS and created an underlay of the need to reinvent to survive a frenetic environment.

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Asia Pacific Aviation Outlook 2002

The world entered into a potentially prolonged economic downturn in 2001 and this was dramatically deepened by the events of September 11 and their impact on business, consumer and traveller confidence and behaviour. It will be some time before the good news outweighs the bad.

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The Essential China Airports Book 2004

Covers operational, traffic and construction details of 140 airports currently in operation, pus details of construction of over 100 other airports in Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau.

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Low Cost Airlines in the Asia Pacific Region: 2002

The original CAPA report that predicted the boom that lay ahead: Low Cost Airlines in the Asia Pacific Region: An Exceptional Intra-Regional Traffic Growth Opportunity. A compelling insight into the transformation that lay ahead for Asia Pacific aviation.

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