London Stansted Airport

CAA’s price proposals for London’s airports: the battle begins as airlines go on the attack

It’s a familiar story as we approach the next five-year regulatory period for airport charges at London’s Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted airports starting from Apr-2014. The airports seek big price increases, while the airlines want them cut and the Civil Aviation Authority (the regulator) tries to make proposals in the middle that displease both sides. A CAA-commissioned study shows that all three airports have significantly increased their realised airport charge yield over the past decade and are above the averages of their comparator airport baskets.

The CAA’s initial proposals were met on 30-Apr-2013 with immediate howls of displeasure from airline chiefs describing the proposed Gatwick price increases as “completely unjustifiable, totally unacceptable”, referring to Stansted’s “absolute pricing power” and calling Heathrow “over-priced, over-rewarded and inefficient”. For their part, the airports complained about “heavy handed regulation”, fearing that the proposals “will put passenger service at risk by not attracting the necessary investment”.

MAG-led consortium's purchase of Stansted Airport could point the direction for the future

The sale of Stansted Airport as part of the break-up of BAA's holdings could coincide with a significant change in its operating outlook, as well as playing a part in reshaping the UK's airport competitive landscape.

As predicted in many of the latter editions of CAPA's Airport Investor Monthly, the deal to sell London Stansted Airport to a Manchester Airports Group-led (MAG) consortium that includes an Australian Pension Fund Manager, was concluded in Jan-2013 for GBP1.5 billion and is expected to pass all final hurdles within a month.

What does this acquisition of a piece of privately owned real estate effectively by a public sector organisation say about the privatisation of airports in the UK, about the North-South divide and about how UK air transport will shape up in the future?

And, as London Mayor Boris Johnson apparently turns his attention away from a big new "estuary airport" towards a more grounded solution at Stansted, MAG and its partners could be in the right place at the right time.

Ryanair's profits fall as it ponders stakes in Aer Lingus and London Stansted

Dublin-based Ryanair recorded a near 30% fall in earnings for the three months ending 30-Jun-2012 in spite of a 6% rise in passenger numbers and a 4% increase in average fares. Net profit for its fiscal first quarter came in at EUR99 million compared to EUR139 million in the year-ago period as revenues rose 11%. But the airline's total operating expenses grew at a higher rate of 17% primarily due to sharply higher fuel costs.

Ryanair’s decrease in net profit was in line with its own guidance, but below consensus forecasts of EUR114 million. Despite the fall in earnings during its fiscal first quarter the carrier is maintaining its full-year outlook and expects to earn between EUR400 million and EUR440 million for its fiscal year ending 31-Mar-2013 as continuing austerity measures, recession in Europe and lower yields at new bases will restrain fare growth. It anticipates growing passenger numbers by 5% to 79 million. Europe’s largest LCC in terms of passengers posted a net profit of EUR503 million in FY2012 and EUR403 million in FY2011.

UK carriers rush to snap up bmibaby’s planned route closures

British Airways (BA) is preparing to disband bmibaby, the low-cost unit it unwelcomely acquired from bmi after previous owner Lufthansa failed to find a buyer. But as the saying goes: one man’s meat in another man’s poison and the news of bmibaby’s grounding was welcomed by multiple airlines including Monarch, Flybe and Jet2.com, all of which are swiftly stepping in to backfill capacity.

Anemic-turns-dynamic is not exclusive to bmibaby’s network but a development seen following the recent demise of other small- and medium-sized airlines in Europe such as Spanair, Malev and Cimber Sterling. In those cases, competitors have reacted swiftly and within a couple of days to fill the void.

bmibaby’s closure is indicative of a recent development in Europe: the lavish injection of capital in loss-making carriers is coming to a standstill with public and private shareholders alike halting the operations of these entities, mostly small- and medium sized airlines, a trend long overdue and induced by low or no economic growth in most EU countries implementing stark austerity measures, and high fuel prices.

Olympic Games, despite conventional wisdom, present no large benefit to airlines

Some members of the public were incredulous last year after Qantas announced it would cut its London capacity by over a third in Mar-2012, months before the summer 2012 Olympic Games being held in London. They saw the Games presenting a large traffic opportunity and thought Qantas should wait for the Olympics to pass before reducing London capacity. But in fact the Olympic Games or any sporting event when held in a large city present little uplift. While leisure demand increases, corporate traffic tends to whittle.

British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, some of the most exposed to London, expect no notable uplift from the Olympics. During the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, airlines recorded traffic – and financial – losses as security measures stunted growth.