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Vanilla Air's potential dual brand operation with parent ANA, as widebodies and new base considered

Analysis

It is no longer content to be just plain vanilla: while Japan's Vanilla Air has played it safe during its 2013-2015 relaunch from AirAsia Japan, from 2016-2018 Vanilla will be in growth mode, doubling its fleet from its existing eight A320s to over 16 A320s. Vanilla has only two international markets - Hong Kong and Taiwan - but will need to diversify as it already prepares for high frequency, including four daily flights to Taipei and two to Hong Kong.

International is Vanilla's preferred growth market over domestic, where traffic is seasonal and the Japanese market is still to be fully convinced of the LCC revolution. Most of Vanilla's international flights carry foreigners, not Japanese. Vanilla may re-enter Seoul while mainland China is a large but challenging market. Southeast Asia, with large growth in inbound Japanese visitors, is appealing but out of A320 range from Tokyo. Vanilla is considering a more southern Japanese base to access parts of Southeast Asia, or to acquire widebody aircraft. International growth could also occur from Tokyo Haneda by using midnight slots, as competitor Peach has done.

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