US attack on Gulf airlines may prove a tragic miscalculation by Delta & partners as Mexico rebels

It has never been clear what, if any, strategic goal Delta, American and United had in seeking to reverse the US' open skies agreement with the UAE and Qatar. By attacking the Gulf airlines on the alleged grounds that they were subsidised, there was always a serious danger that the clearly protectionist action would spark a wider threat to the very concept of open skies that has served US airlines so well in expanding their international influence.

Now that risk may be materialising as Mexican airline unions take to the streets to protest the threat to their existence if Mexico signs a very liberalised, almost open skies agreement with the US. Certainly there is talk in aviation administrations around the world that the open skies concept is under review in the US. This is not good news for anyone, least of all the US airlines.

Perhaps the intent was simply to place a cap on the level of capacity of Emirates, Etihad and Qatar in the US. Perhaps this view was supported by the controversial way the US Department of Transportation has squatted uncomfortably on the application of Norwegian International to fly to the US (although this may be backfiring, as Norwegian adds capacity under its own brand). There could scarcely have been a realistic hope that the open skies agreement with the UAE would be renegotiated. Among other negatives, this would put at risk FedEx's major Middle East hub in the UAE, a hub only made possible by the open skies regime.