Tokyo Narita Outlook Part 1: once a mega hub, international and transit passengers decline
Yes, it does exist: an Asian airport with almost zero growth. Once the epicentre of the Japan Inc. growth spurt, Tokyo Narita managed only a 0.6% increase in passengers in 2014 despite plentiful slots being available. At regional airports where slots are not as readily available, Beijing Capital posted 2.9% growth in 2014, Shanghai Pudong 9.5% and Hong Kong 5.5%. Narita's 0.6% increase was comprised of 5.7% growth in the first five months and a 2.7% decrease in the last seven months. Jan-2015 traffic was down a further 6.7%.
Transit traffic is decreasing from a high of 21% in 2009 to 18% in 2014. Narita joins Seoul Incheon in suffering transit traffic decreases as Chinese hubs finally flex their muscle. Airlines have shifted to Tokyo Haneda while US carriers are favouring non-stops into other Asian cities rather than hubbing at Narita. There is some long-haul growth on the horizon with the arrival of Ethiopian Airlines and more flights from ANA and JAL, but Narita must contend with a decreasing presence from US carriers. Delta's Narita capacity will be down 11% in 2015 while United's will decrease 15%. American could decrease its size if its moves its Los Angeles flight from Narita to Haneda.
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