Japan tourism targets doubled, despite airline capacity decreases. Long haul focus

China may be the story for the great outbound travel boom, but its neighbour Japan is the home for inbound visitor growth. Despite being one of the world's most populous nations, with a high GDP and rich culture, Japan has hardly registered with visitor arrivals. That is quickly changing. Between 2010 and 2015 Japan added 11 million annual visitors. Japan ended 2015 with 19.7 million visitors, five years ahead of its goal to have 20 million visitors in 2020. Tokyo has now doubled its goals: by 2020, Japan wants another 20 million, and then 30 million more in the next decade after that. Before the end of the decade, Japan expects to crack the list of 10 most popular countries for tourism. By 2030, it could be in the top five.

China and other Asian markets are driving most of the growth: in early 2016, they account for 87% of visitor arrivals, up from 62% in 1998. Long haul markets to Europe, North America and Australia/New Zealand have experienced a corresponding decrease. Japan's new tourism goal is to rebalance and gain stronger growth from these long haul markets. Yet the capacity is not there.

Overall long haul capacity has been reduced over recent years. Virgin Atlantic and Austrian cancelled service while Iberia and LOT enter, yet Air France-KLM and Lufthansa are making steep reductions. American Airlines has added a flight but Delta is withdrawing more long haul capacity in 2016 than any airline. Japan may consider re-evaluating the joint ventures it has approved, or to be more liberal with fifth freedom rights.