flydubai's fleet could reach 200 aircraft with more liberalisation, connections and partnerships

Dubai based Flydubai has become the largest low-cost carrier in the Middle East. Its fleet of approximately 40 737s will grow to 61 before beginning the process of replacement, with some growth, by 75 737 MAX 8s. But flydubai is considering the possibility of a long-term plan to grow its fleet to 200 aircraft, a sum that could see flydubai have more aircraft than Etihad Airways. Although this represents more than a quadrupling from flydubai's current size, it is not a vision difficult to see.

Realising that vision however will require work. Flydubai would likely need to grow connections, which accounted for 25% of traffic in 2013, almost the opposite of Emirates' approximately 80% connections and 20% local traffic. Flydubai can continue to promote internal connections but will need to grow interlines and consider establishing codeshares. Flyduabi will need to continue to lobby the government to remain in the near future at Dubai International, the city's main airport, and not move to Dubai World Central.

A closer relationship with Emirates will be critical, but the underlying oxygen for a 200 aircraft fleet will be liberalisation in the aeropolitical environment - not just from the usual suspect of India but also from Pakistan and Iran, where access is also constrained.