Egypt: air travel's sensitivity to geopolitical events shows in falling international seat numbers

Air travel to Egypt continues to be very susceptible to geopolitical events. The fall-out from the Metrojet incident at the end of Oct-2015, just as the winter season was starting, continues to be felt as the summer 2016 schedule gets under way. All flights between Russia and Egypt continue to be suspended, as do flights between the UK and the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. The 29-Mar-2016 hijacking of an Egyptair domestic flight, causing its diversion to Larnaca, further threw the spotlight on security concerns in Egyptian aviation.

International seat capacity to Egypt enjoyed a number of years of double-digit growth before this was interrupted by the Arab Spring of 2011. There followed a period of virtually stagnant capacity. International capacity returned to growth in 2015, before being interrupted once more by these more recent events. According to OAG data, international seat numbers will fall by 4% in summer 2016.

Russian and UK airlines are the biggest contributors to the fall in capacity this summer, while Egyptian airlines and many from other countries in the Middle East are set to grow on international routes to Egypt. The Egypt tourism market has in the past demonstrated its powers of recovery and is likely to do so again.