Orlando International Airport

PEOPLExpress business model remains murky as it finally moves closer to launch

The somewhat-hyped acquisition by start-up PEOPLExpress of charter carrier XTRA Airways may accelerate the carrier’s long overdue market entry, but it will do little to improve PEOPLExpress’ odds of survival in a US market place that now revolves around three distinct business models – ultra low-cost, hybrid and full-service network carriers.

PEOPLExpress’ declaration that it would retain the XTRA brand and its charter services only clouds its already murky business plan, which should give rational, would-be investors pause as the carrier has done little to crystallise its vision other than buying a smaller carrier in order to obtain an operating certificate after overestimating the time and effort entailed in gaining approval from the US FAA.

Alaska Air Group faces tough 2Q2013 as competitive capacity hurts yields. Cost crunch looms

Alaska Air Group is warning that it faces a challenging 2Q2013 as the maturing of new transcontinental routes and competitive capacity pressures in its markets to the state of Alaska are creating pressure on yields even as demand remains strong.

Some of the steps Alaska has taken to rationalise its capacity between the US mainland and Hawaii as a means to improve its performance in those markets is being diluted by several carriers making a push into the state of Alaska during the summer high season in the northern hemisphere.

Even though the carrier is spooling up new markets and facing increased competition in some of its mature markets, Alaska for the moment is sticking to its higher than industry average capacity growth for 2013 of 7.5%. However, the carrier is not completely wedded to its current expected capacity growth, and is evaluating the possibility of adjusting its supply targets during autumn 2013.

Porter sets its sights on becoming Canadian aviation’s third force

After quietly allowing its rivals to grab headlines in 2012 with the unveiling of new subsidiaries, Canada’s Porter Airlines has followed through on plans to declare its long-term strategy, boldly proclaiming its ambitions to become a strong third force in Canada’s aviation market. Underpinning Porter’s efforts are the carrier’s plans to introduce Bombardier CSeries CS100 narrowbodies in a drive to broaden its reach to markets beyond the eastern half of Canada and the US.

Porter’s evolution follows hints dropped by the carrier in recent weeks that it would table its long-term vision going forward after Air Canada and WestJet dominated Canadian aviation discourse in 2012 by unveiling plans to create their respective subsidiaries Rouge and Encore. Porter now envisions the 107-seat narrowbody aircraft joining its existing fleet of Bombardier Q400 turboprops to allow for expansion into western Canada, and new transborder markets on the US west coast and Florida.

JetBlue targets leisure travellers from Worcester while expansion in Boston & the Caribbean continue

JetBlue Airways is sticking to its strongholds of Boston and San Juan for new route roll-outs during 2013, but it is also introducing flights from Worcester, which is 74km west of its Boston focus city. The move appears to somewhat replicate what JetBlue has done in Newburgh Stewart Airport New York – introducing flights from a smaller market near one of its larger bases to the leisure markets of Orlando and Fort Lauderdale.

While service to Worcester may seem a bit odd, the airport has been engaged with JetBlue intensely in an effort to restore service after Direct Air ended its scheduled flights from the airport in May-2012. During the last decade Worcester has faced challenges in sustaining direct flights, but the airport is now operated by Massport, which is the operator of JetBlue’s growing focus city in Boston. Given JetBlue’s established relationship with Massport, and the reported incentives the carrier is receiving to launch service in Nov-2013, the new flights are likely low risk for the carrier.

Gol pledges a financial turnaround as it records a second consecutive annual loss, of USD745 million

Brazil’s second largest carrier Gol was unable to turn its fortunes positive in 2012 and actually widened its loss for the year. Despite its attempts to combat the cooling Brazilian domestic market through marked capacity cuts and turning some of its attention to international services, Gol recorded a BRL447 million (USD222 million) loss for 4Q2012 and a BRL1.5 billion (USD745 million) negative result for the full year.

Gol believes the changes it has made with respect to its domestic supply and various cost-containment schemes should produce a positive operating result for 1Q2013. But the carrier made similar pronouncements during 2012 as it recorded four quarters of unprofitability, so the pressure is mounting on management to put some grit behind a pledged turnaround.

Unlike its major rival TAM, which is now part of the powerful LATAM Airlines Group, Gol does not have the benefit of large network to help it diversify from areas of weakness to more robust regions. Both Gol and TAM during 2012 had to combat softening demand that resulted from Brazil’s slowing economy. During 2012 GDP growth in Brazil was revised down to 2% from 4%, and during 2013 Gol is projecting growth of 2.5% to a maximum of 3%. This compares to GDP growth of approximately 7.5% growth in Brazil during 2010.

Southwest Airlines, the US' fourth force, does not neatly fit the emerging US business models

Southwest Airlines sits at an interesting crossroads as the US market reaches a high level of maturity ushered in by legacy carrier consolidation and its own merger with AirTran Airways that is targeted for completion in 2014. With the changes, three distinct business models are emerging in the US – full service, hybrid and ultra low-cost.

But Southwest does not fit neatly into any of those categories, which the carrier might view as a positive attribute as it examines how to evolve its business model. Southwest's history of a skittish approach to change leaves many questions unanswered as to how the airline can retain the attributes that make it a recognisable brand while making key decisions to ensure a large pipe of steady revenue generation.

The low-cost pioneer during the last couple of years has seen its edge in that regard soften as Chapter 11 reorganisations and consolidation among the US majors has resulted in those airlines lowering their unit costs. During 2012 Southwest’s unit costs increased 4.2% year-over-year, and on a stage length adjusted basis there was roughly a 30% difference in its nearly USD7 cent unit costs compared with Allegiant Air, who along with Spirit is considered the new breed of ultra low-cost carrier.