Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport

Philippines regional market presents opportunities but also challenges for start-ups such as SkyJet

This is the fifth and final instalment in a series of analysis articles on the Philippines market. The first part analysed the strong position of Philippine market leader Cebu Pacific. The second part looked at the tie-up between LCCs Zest Air and AirAsia Philippines, which along with Tiger affiliate SEAir compete with Cebu Pacific in the fast-growing budget end of the market. The third part looked at the outlook for Philippine Airlines (PAL) in the domestic market, including the recent decision by the group to abandon the low-cost model at sister carrier AirPhil/PAL Express. The fourth part looked at PAL’s position in the international market. This part examines the opportunities in the dynamic Philippine regional market as a result of consolidation and rationalisation in the domestic market.

Regional carriers have traditionally played an important role in the Philippines as several domestic airports, including some of the country’s most popular tourism destinations such as Boracay, cannot be accessed with Airbus or Boeing aircraft. Even some of the country’s low-cost carriers operate turboprops, abandoning the normal single aircraft type mantra of the LCC model, recognising the unique needs of the Philippine market.

Philippine Airlines banks recovery on international expansion but faces uphill battle

This is the fourth part of a series of articles on the 2013 outlook for Philippine carriers. The third part, published on 3-Apr-2013, analysed the bleak outlook in the domestic market for the Philippine Airline (PAL) Group following its decision to exit the budget sector by transitioning PAL Express, formerly known as AirPhil, from low-cost to full-service regional carrier. This part looks at the international outlook for PAL, which has improved since a determination from ICAO in Mar-2013 that the Philippine authorities are now in compliance with its safety standards.

The ICAO determination should lead to the Philippines being removed from the EU blacklist and upgraded to Category 1 status by the US FAA, opening up expansion opportunities for PAL’s long-haul operation. But the ICAO determination could also lead to new competition in the Philippines to Japan, South Korea and US markets.

PAL now faces only very limited competition from other Philippine carriers to Japan and no competition from local carriers in long-haul markets. But Cebu Pacific and other Philippine LCCs plan to pursue rapid expansion of their international operations regionally and, in the case of Cebu Pacific, in the medium/long-haul market.

AirAsia Philippines and Zest Air outlook improves following tie-up, but challenges remain

This is the second part of a series of articles looking at the outlook for Philippine carriers. The first part, published on 19-Mar-2013, analysed the strong position of market leader Cebu Pacific.

Part 2 looks at the recent tie up between AirAsia Philippines and Zest Air, which along with new Tiger Airways affiliate SEAir are looking to improve their relatively weak positioning in the highly competitive Philippine market. Part 3 will look at flag carrier Philippine Airlines and the recent rebranding and strategy shift at PAL Express, previously known as AirPhil Express.

AirAsia Philippines and privately owned Zest Air unveiled a strategic partnership on 11-Mar-2013 which included an equity swap, with AirAsia Philippines taking a 49% stake in Zest in exchange for a 15% stake in AirAsia Philippines. The partnership is expected to result in the AirAsia brand entering the Manila market, using the slots and traffic rights held by Zest. AirAsia currently only serves Manila's alternative airport, Clark.

Cebu Pacific sees bright outlook for 2013 as rationality returns to Philippines market

Cebu Pacific is planning more double-digit capacity expansion in 2013 as the Philippine LCC launches widebody services and expands its limited Japanese network. Cebu Pacific expects to expand seat capacity by 11% in 2013 and grow its fleet by 17% to 48 aircraft. The expansion, which includes the launch of its new long-haul operation, should allow the carrier to extend its already leading share of the Philippine market.

Cebu Pacific recorded 11% growth in passenger traffic in 2012 and a 7% operating profit margin despite intense competition, particularly in the domestic market. The carrier’s load factor and net profit dropped slightly. But Cebu Pacific’s outlook for 2013 is brighter given the recent rationalisation and consolidation in the Philippine domestic market and the new opportunities for international expansion created as a result of Philippine authorities passing an ICAO safety audit in Feb-2013.

Cebu Pacific’s new low-cost long-haul operation to initially focus on Middle East & regional routes

Cebu Pacific’s new low-cost long-haul unit plans to initially focus on Middle Eastern and regional markets as it works towards launching services with 436-seat A330-300s by Jul-2013. Dubai will be the Philippine carrier’s first long-haul route and will likely be followed by service to Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in 2014. But Cebu Pacific over the medium to long-term also aims to use its new fleet of A330s to serve Australia and potentially Hawaii.

Cebu Pacific will become Asia’s fourth low-cost long-haul carrier, joining Jetstar, AirAsia X and Scoot. But Cebu Pacific is implementing a different strategy with an all-economy product and focus on point-to-point traffic. This reflects the different dynamics of the Philippine market, particularly its large overseas population.

Philippine Airlines Group to step up competition against Cebu Pacific with new long-haul LCC

The Philippine Airlines (PAL) Group is looking at launching a low-cost long-haul operation, potentially in 2013, as part of the Group’s revised two-brand strategy. Allocating some of PAL’s newly acquired A330-300s to its budget brand will help the Group stay competitive with archrival Cebu Pacific, which is planning to launch its own low-cost long-haul operation in mid 2013. A long-haul operation from AirPhil/PAL Express would also allow the Group to re-enter markets in the Middle East, which it has dropped in recent years and is the main target for Cebu Pacific’s new A330 operation.

PAL Group sources say AirPhil Express, which is currently awaiting approval to be rebranded as PAL Express, is expected to receive several of the A330-300s PAL ordered in Aug-2012 for delivery from 2013. Sources say the aircraft will be operated in all-economy configuration and likely be used initially on routes between Manila and destinations in the Middle East.