National University of Singapore Prof of Aviation Law Alan Khee-Jin Tan, speaking at the CAPA Australia Pacific Aviation Summit, stated (07-Aug-2013) there is a risk that the ASEAN single aviation market becomes “single in name” with airlines lobbying some countries such as Indonesia to stay out of the plan. Indonesia wants to open its skies “piecemeal” through bilateral air services agreement. The project “stops with third, fourth and fifth freedom rights”. According to Prof Tan a true single sky needs seventh freedom rights and not possessing this will disadvantage and “hobble” ASEAN carriers in the long run.
ASEAN single aviation market threatened
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President Trump and US aviation. A likely reversion to protectionism
The 45th President of the USA will be Donald J. Trump.
This CAPA analysis considers the impact of his campaign, and now impending presidency, on the aviation and tourism sector, against the background of the election campaign. It is an upadated version of one produced by CAPA in Jun-2016. There is more to the apparent shift in US international attitudes than just Mr Trump's election, as a sweeping dissatisfaction and distrust of “politicians” pervades that country – and others.
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign was marked by a combination of populism, nationalism, protectionism, racism – notably against Mexicans - and anti-Muslim rhetoric. There were also even less attractive elements of his campaign.
Mr Trump’s positions were matched at the other end of the political spectrum – in a more palatable way – by Bernie Sanders, who also played to the populist disillusionment with Washington. The result has shifted the US' national policy fulcrum. For aviation purposes Mr Trump has said and done things that are relevant in several important areas, as outlined below. Protectionism and an erosion of free trade is a prominent risk.
Southeast Asia-US market Part 3: new nonstops need to overcome stiff one-stop FSC & LCC competition
Southeast Asian airlines are seeking to capture a larger share of the Southeast Asia-US market over the next few years as they launch new flights to the US. Three of the region’s flag carriers and at least one long haul LCC are planning to launch flights to the US, intensifying competition in an already fiercely competitive market.
Southeast Asian airlines currently account for less than a 20% share of the total Southeast Asia-US market. Philippine Airlines and Singapore Airlines are the only significant players in this market and are aiming to increase their share as they add new nonstop routes. Garuda Indonesia, Thai Airways and Vietnam Airlines are also keen to become significant players as they launch flights to the US, replacing their now limited offline products.
However, market share gains will likely come at the expense of yields and profitability as competition with North Asian airlines – and to some extent US and Gulf carriers – intensifies. North Asian airlines now account for more than 50% of bookings in the Southeast Asia-US market and have increased their reliance on Southeast Asian connections as they have added US capacity, resulting in very competitive fares.