Airbus revises 20-year forecast upwards

Airbus released (13-Dec-2010) its 2010-2029 Global Market Forecast, forecasting demand for almost 26,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft valued at USD3.2 trillion. Demand is primarily driven by replacement of aircraft for new, more efficient aircraft in mature markets, dynamic growth in new emerging markets, low-cost carriers particularly in Asia, further market liberalisation and capacity growth on existing routes. The forecast is up 900 aircraft over the 2009 outlook, reflecting a higher forecast growth rates (increased from 4.7% to 4.8%), mainly in the narrowbody segment. Narrowbody demand will be driven by growth in the Asia Pacific, the emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalisation. The global aircraft fleet is expected to increase from 14,000 to 29,000 by 2029. Airlines in Asia Pacific - including China and India will carry one third - of passenger traffic by 2029, making it the largest region, overtaking Europe (25%) and North America (20%).

• Forecast highlights:
  • Passenger aircraft: 25,000 new aircraft, valued at USD2.9 trillion
  • Replacement demand: 10,000
  • New demand: 15,000
  • Freighters: 2980.
  • Conversions: 2110;
  • New aircraft: 870, valued at USD211 billion.

• Aircraft types:
  • Very Large Aircraft: 1700, valued at over USD570 billion;
  • Widebody: 6240, valued at USD1,340 billion;
    • Smaller widebody: 4330;
    • Intermediate widebody: 1910;
  • Narrowbody: 17,900, valued at USD1,274 billion;

• Passenger traffic volume 2010 (RPKs, % of world share):
  • Domestic US: 11.3%:
  • Domestic China: 8.4%,
  • Intra-European: 7.2%,
  • US to Western Europe: 5.9%.

Airbus: "The recovery is stronger than predicted and reinforces both the resilience of the sector to downturns and that people want and need to fly. The single aisle sector is particularly strong," John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers. Source: Airbus, 13-Dec-2010. [more]