Turkish Airlines and Pegasus to take unprecedented capacity decisions as Turkey air traffic slumps

Until 2014 Turkey was one of the most reliably fast-growing air traffic markets in Europe. In 2015 passenger numbers levelled off, and in 2016 traffic is set to decline. The impact of geopolitical events, including a series of terrorist attacks, the civil war in neighbouring Syria and the failed coup attempt in Jul-2016, has weighed heavily on demand for international travel to/from Turkey.

Foreign airlines switched capacity away from Turkey in summer 2016, but the country's two largest operators - Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines - continued to grow. However, following years of double-digit growth by both, Turkish Airlines and Pegasus Airlines are taking unusual steps this winter. According to data from OAG, Turkish looks set to implement year-on-year capacity cuts, while Pegasus appears to be planning flat capacity for the period from Nov-2016 to Mar-2017. It seems likely that both airlines will again cut their growth targets for 2016.

Moreover, Pegasus is seeking wet-lease customers for six of its current fleet of 73 aircraft. Perhaps more significantly, Turkish is to reschedule 165 aircraft deliveries planned for 2018-2022, cutting its planned fleet size in 2021 from 439 to 400.