Southeast Asia low-cost airline fleet to expand by almost 20% in 2014. Are more deferrals needed?

Southeast Asia's low-cost carrier fleet is still projected to increase by nearly 20% in 2014 despite a recent spate of delivery deferrals and suspensions of expansion. The region's LCC fleet also grew by about 20% in 2013, creating overcapacity in several Southeast Asian markets and leading to the current pressure on yields and load factors.

The AirAsia Group has made the right move in slowing down expansion by deferring deliveries and selling aircraft. Tigerair Mandala and Jetstar Asia also have decided to take at least a one-year hiatus from expanding their fleets. More Southeast Asian LCCs, including potentially the Lion Air Group, need to make similar adjustments for market conditions to improve.

Southeast Asia is still a market with huge opportunities for further LCC growth. But LCC capacity expansion has started to outstrip supply, perhaps necessitating a pause for breathing space.