North Asia's airlines add capacity in 2014 as underdogs play catch up and short haul focus increases

All of North Asia's main 13 airlines except Korean Air will operate more flights in the first quarter of 2014 than in the year prior. But this has different impacts and not all airlines will grow seat and ASK capacity. On average 1Q2014 seats will be up 3.7% and ASKs 3.4% complementing 4.5% growth in frequencies. For Cathay Pacific and Japan Airlines, more frequencies come at the expense of ASKs as aircraft are down-gauged or see lower configurations. For others, frequency growth faster than seat/ASK growth will allow them to tap new short-haul markets.

Hong Kong Airlines, China Southern, EVA Air and TransAsia are due to be the region's largest-growth carriers. Carriers in Greater China are introducing seat and ASK growth above frequency growth due to limited slots and the nature of trunk routes. China Airlines and EVA Air have a similar growth profile, but in other markets the two big carriers (ANA and JAL in Japan, Asiana and Korean Air in Korea) differ.

The uniting theme is carriers looking to close the gap while incumbents seek sustainability. 1Q2014 is a relatively tame start to the year, which will see expansion from ANA at Haneda, Asiana take A380s and launch more long-haul flying, Skymark become Japan's third long-haul airline and Cathay put in 6.3% ASK growth after two quiet years.