Iran aviation: the possible withdrawal of sanctions opens the door to OEMs and airlines alike

Iran's aviation sanctions removal could be imminent as both Iran and the West are hungry for a deal.

A comprehensive agreement or further extension of the interim sanction measures is likely by the Nov-2014 deadline, galvanised on the West's side by the prospect of an unconstrained and potentially accelerated uranium enrichment programme should negotiations collapse. The significant increase in Iran's nuclear capabilities is driving the West's eagerness for an agreement with a sense that leverage is shifting in Iran's favour.

STOP PRESS! CAPA announces Iran Aviation Summit, Tehran 24-25 January 2016 - first major international aviation summit to be held in Iran in almost 40 years, with the full backing of Iran's aviation authorities and industry leaders. The Iranian delegation comprises the 100 most influential people in Iranian aviation and travel. They will be joined by more than 150 industry leaders from around the world, meeting to discuss the potential of the market in a post-sanctions environment. Click here to view the Iran delegate line-up.

Iran is likely confident it has created a "nuclear reality on the ground" after years of obfuscation which bought time to reach a comfortable break-out capacity - the ability to quickly construct a bomb - that disputably stands at several months to just over a year.

Iran is also in urgent need of an agreement to bolster its hampered economy and regain access to foreign technology and international finance. Iran may only have unencumbered access to around USD20 billion of an estimated USD80 billion in foreign currency reserves, as of mid-2013.

This report formed part of Airline Leader Weekly of 8-Oct-2014.