Etihad moves on Air Berlin and the world’s aviation axis shifts. What will Willie do next?

Etihad's already anticipated acquisition of a large minority share in Air Berlin will surprise few, but its potential to alter the global balance of international airline activity may well cause major ructions in 2012. Lufthansa sees the Gulf carriers as its biggest threat as they perfect the art of sixth freedom operations; and to have the fastest growing of them established in its own capital city will shake more than the balance of power in Germany.

For Etihad's move is surely just one step now in breaking down the sharp division between, on one side, the new generation airlines and, on the other, the established European big three of Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and British Airways-Iberia (International Airlines Group, IAG). The latter, a leader of the oneworld alliance to which airberlin will shortly belong, is also, under Willie Walsh's leadership, patently on the prowl for new and probably surprising ventures.