China aviation: CAPA's airline and airport review 2012: Part 1

While the world watched China's Nov-2012 central government leadership change, of greater relevance to air transport will probably be another change: that of the aviation regulator, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), which is expected to undergo a high-level turnover within the following six months. Current administrator Li Jiaxiang is expected to retire from the CAAC, possibly to take up a higher office 
in government.

The new leader may well preside over a period of radical redirection of the powerful body - for that is what is needed in today's very different world.

The CAAC is more than the industry's regulator and safety authority on a micro and macro level: it decides exactly what routes local and foreign airlines can fly, sometimes with perplexing outcomes, as well as the general policy of how air transport should develop.

China's domestic market is about half the size of the world's largest domestic market, the United States, but Airbus expects China will overtake the US by 2031.
 It may well happen before that. Boeing forecasts that China will need to take 5,260 commercial aircraft until then - almost one new aircraft every day for the next 19 years.

This extract is Part 1 of a detailed review of China's aviation outlook contained in the October-November issue of Airline Leader, CAPA's journal for aviation CEOs.