Alitalia's long-haul network and Etihad's short-haul feed are enhanced with Etihad's proposed stake

Alitalia has lost over EUR1.1 billion since its 2009 reincarnation, hardly an indication of fundamental change. Despite this, Etihad Airways remains in negotiations to invest potentially up to EUR500 million for a 49% stake in the carrier, the maximum allowed under EU regulations. What, it might be asked, does Etihad see of enough value to be in nearly five months of serious negotiations?

First, possibly, is Italy's domestic market, the 13th largest in the world and largest in Europe after Spain for seat and ASK capacity. Overall when ranked on all seats to/from/within the country, Italy is the world's eighth largest market overall for seats but lower when looking at ASKs. Etihad is weak in Italy, entering only in 2007 when Emirates and Qatar already had a sizeable presence. Etihad's 2014 capacity into Italy is expected to be a fraction of Emirates' and Qatar's. A role in Alitalia can help bolster Etihad in Italy, building on their existing codeshare.

In turn, Etihad can provide a virtual network solution for Alitalia in Asia, where Alitalia is extremely small despite sizeable capacity from competing Asian carriers. Etihad meanwhile can feed Alitalia's European network, alleviating some pressure from LCCs, in addition to Alitalia's eastward long-haul flights to the Americas. The network synergies have potential, but Etihad will need a long time-frame to capture a return on its investment; that is, assuming the Italian government is finally willing to restructure Alitalia in a sustainable way.