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airberlin must aim for a profit in 2016 after eighth straight operating loss in 2015 and 1Q2016 loss

Analysis

Airberlin was the only listed European airline to record an operating loss in 2015. Moreover, both its operating loss and its net loss were wider than in 2014. Its 1Q2016 losses show little sign of progress, although they represent the seasonally weakest quarter and airberlin expects an improvement for FY2016.

Airberlin's restructuring programme led to network adjustments and capacity reduction in 2015. Helped also by new fare classes and other commercial developments, this drove an increase in load factor and unit revenue. However, its unit cost rose more rapidly than its unit revenue in 2015. After seeing both measures fall in 2014 (with CASK falling more quickly), this marked a return to the trend of several years - one that has left it mired in eight straight years of operating losses.

Since the end of 2015 when airberlin's cash balance was at a new low it has secured fresh debt funding, thanks in no small measure to its largest shareholder, Etihad. In 2016 further fuel cost benefits and expected yield growth may just provide the conditions for airberlin to return to profit. Although airberlin has not yet given a target for the year, achieving this should be a minimum goal.

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