13 Chinese airlines could each have a fleet of over 100 aircraft by 2020

No-one can have escaped reports of the explosive growth of China's airline industry over the past decade. But to date this has largely been captive within the domestic market. Over the next five years, as the industry diversifies with further expansion, the impact will become much more apparent in international markets, bringing with it significant competitive and structural waves.

Of the 48 passenger airlines in the world today with over 100 aircraft, six are in mainland China: Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Hainan Airlines, Shenzhen Airlines and Xiamen Airlines. And of the world's 10 largest airlines by passenger fleet size, three are in China.

But, by 2020 there could be over 13 Chinese airlines operating over 100 aircraft. Some seem sure bets: Tianjin Airlines already operates 84 aircraft. At the other end of the scale, West Air's ambitious projection of 80-100 aircraft by 2020 comes on a current fleet size of only 13. There will be adjustments, as seen by Spring delaying from 2015 to 2020 its plan to operate 100 aircraft, an aspiration - albeit probably realistic - that fell short due to import restrictions outside Spring's control.

Of the 2,200 aircraft in service in China in 2014, 81% are narrowbodies (a higher proportion than in the US) with the 737 and A320 each staking an equal share.