Seoul Incheon International Airport

The A380 becomes mainstream, with 103 now in service: which airlines, destinations, stage lengths?

There are 103 A380s in service as of early May-2013. Emirates has 33 and Singapore Airlines has 19, so when assessing network scheduling, these two and their hubs predominate: of the 1,048 weekly A380 flights, 402 are from Emirates alone. Dubai and Singapore airport see the most A380 flights.

But there are some less predictable statistics. The airport to see the most A380 operators is Hong Kong followed by Paris and Los Angeles. The largest A380 destination that is not (yet) an A380-hub is London Heathrow. The UK and USA are the most common A380 destinations after Australia, Singapore and the UAE. Asia, not the Middle East, sees the most A380 flights; South America sees none. Guangzhou-Shanghai Pudong is the shortest A380 route at 1,202km while Los Angeles-Melbourne is the longest at 12,751km. Qantas and Lufthansa have the highest average sector length while Thai Airways is placing the most number of cycles – about two – on its aircraft per day. Qantas and Air France are placing the least (just over one).

South Korea-Japan airline market sees structural change from LCCs, political tension & weakening yen

The once tidy and highly profitable Japan-Korean market is undergoing fundamental change – accompanied by double-digit yield declines.

It is difficult to identify precisely which ingredients are provoking the greatest change in the South Korea-Japan airline market. First, in mid/late 2012 the market was transformed as new airlines entered and others added capacity; these were mainly LCCs with unprecedented low fares. Then late 2012 saw Japanese outbound tourist numbers fall sharply due to political tensions between South Korea and Japan over largely uninhabited but disputed islands.

In 2013 the Japanese outbound market remains soft as the yen weakens. While the international political situation will eventually cool down, the Korean response has been to target individual tourists rather than tour groups, a change that was long overdue in any event.

But the difference now is that those individuals have LCCs to provide for their needs. These carriers are here to stay, and they will grow – for the usual reasons, but also due to the weakening yen. While the economic and political factors favour the Korean side, it is the Japanese side that has a larger share of the market.

South Korea's Asiana targets growth in 2013 within Asia, in advance of big long-haul growth in 2014

One of the highest growth rates in North Asia in 2013 will be from South Korea's Asiana, which is projecting a 9% increase in RPKs. This compares to 4% RPK growth at Korean Air and modest growth from All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines. Many Chinese carriers will have similar or higher growth, but notably Air China will be lower as it runs out of slots.

The focus in 2013 for Asiana, globally the 54th largest airline based on capacity and sixth largest for intra-Asia international capacity, is regional flights, increasing capacity to cities including Chongqing and Yangon and launching new services to Denpasar and Jakarta. This traffic will help feed its long-haul network, due to commence notable expansion beginning in 2014 as A380s replace 777-200ERs, facilitating their re-deployment to new routes.

Modest achiever Korean Air to increase North American strength, tap new markets & look for partners

South Korea's largest carrier, Korean Air, is modest – too modest. It punches above its weight and is a formidable carrier being the largest Asian airline in North America. Asian carriers are increasingly favouring North America: in the short term its economy is doing better than Europe's and in the long term competition will be lighter owing to fewer carriers.

Geography is on its side given Korea's relative proximity to North America. Korea is not as close as Japan is, but Japanese carriers face a higher cost base, nearly twice that of Asiana and Korean.

Korea is also an efficient springboard from China, where Korean Air is the largest foreign carrier after Dragonair and rival Asiana, allowing it to tap sixth freedom markets as Chinese carriers sluggishly respond to that huge potential. Korean Air is increasing North American capacity, including with A380s, but also looking to new markets around Asia.

Juneyao Airlines continues international expansion in North & Southeast Asia, and seeks partners

China's Juneyao Airlines is continuing the progressive international expansion it commenced in 2012, further diluting its mainland domestic market service (excluding "regional" services to Hong Kong and Macau). Thailand is so far a focus, with the country's leisure nature appealing to the privately-owned, and all-A320 family, operator's target market, of consumers in the high-income Shanghai area seeking a boutique service for leisure needs. Juneyao's 158-seat A320s have 150 economy and eight first class seats. The carrier also sees corporate traffic, but downplays this so as to avoid conflict with the state-owned carriers which receive preference on international routes.

Juneyao had considered services to Japan's resort island of Okinawa, but this has fallen out of favour due to political tensions between China and Japan. Chinese carriers are turning their attention to Southeast Asia as they seek new markets, and the region offers year-round pleasant weather. Juneyao is also expanding in South Korea and is considering a presence in Singapore. Juneyao hopes these services will raise its international profile and attract potential partners to work on international routes or feed passengers onto Juneyao's domestic network based around Shanghai. Juneyao is the 13th largest domestic carrier in China and has a fleet of 29 A320s, of comparable size to Virgin America, which has been able to attract international partners.

SIA’s Scoot again targets under-penetrated Taiwanese market with new service to Seoul

Singapore Airlines' (SIA) long-haul low-cost subsidiary Scoot is further exploiting the absence of a local LCC in Taiwan by selecting Singapore-Taipei-Seoul Incheon as its seventh route. Scoot is already the largest low-cost carrier serving Taiwan, which has the lowest LCC penetration rate among major Asian markets. Following the mid-2013 launch of Jetstar Hong Kong, Taiwan will also be the last remaining medium or large-size market in Asia without a local LCC.

Scoot launched service in Sep-2012 on the Singapore-Taipei-Tokyo Narita route, which the carrier now serves daily. The carrier has been focusing primarily on stimulating demand in the local Singapore-Taipei and Taipei-Tokyo markets rather than on Singapore-Tokyo through passengers.

Scoot will similarly focus on the under-served Taipei-Seoul market after launching the Singapore-Taipei-Seoul route on 27-May-2013 with an initial three weekly frequencies. The new route will also boost Scoot’s presence in the competitive Singapore-Taipei market as the additional three weekly flights make Scoot the largest carrier on the route, just ahead of SIA.