Adelaide Airport

Airlines' tangled alliances evolve: British Airways-Cathay Pacific codeshare to Australia - for now

Implications continue to emerge from the Sep-2012 landmark Emirates-Qantas alliance, the latest development being a codeshare covering Australia for British Airways and Cathay Pacific. Although the two are members of the oneworld alliance and at first blush may be considered partners, they had the most minimal of ties, owing to significant competition between them.

That competitive situation still exists but other factors have changed: BA's once deep partner Qantas is now a competitor, aligned with Emirates, and is establishing a Jetstar franchise on Cathay's home turf in Hong Kong. BA and Cathay are united by a common enemy – not the first occasion this reasoning has spawned an alliance – but also other factors. BA has lost its Australian network access and Cathay fits in; meanwhile Cathay will be receptive to feed to sustain its positioning after China Southern and Singapore Airlines have made large capacity increases in Australia.

Alliances are evolving, and this partnership will surely change – or go extinct – as BA becomes more familiar with new oneworld members Malaysia Airlines and Qatar Airways, with whom it will have more in common than it does with Cathay.

AirAsia X IPO prospectus shows strength. AirAsia synergies help, also require definition

The prospectus for the forthcoming IPO for AirAsia X, a separate business from AirAsia, shows that the low-cost long-haul model can be successful, operationally and profitably, but only when deployed sensibly. During 1H2012, a challenging time for the global industry, AirAsia X reported a respectable 7.9% pre-tax margin on services to Australia, which comprise about half of the carrier's capacity.

The low cost model is ideally suited to Asia's price sensitive, high growth environment and AirAsia X's symbiotic relationship with Asia's biggest LCC, AirAsia, makes it a formidable model.

Attempts to serve Europe, since ended, resulted in a -26% margin in 2011. Yet Europe's weakness for AirAsia X was acknowledged early on. The sharply business-minded CEO Azran Osman-Rani went in saying he would be happy to break even; AirAsia X fell to pressure to plant the red flag in Europe at the behest of part-owner AirAsia, which still harbours an entrepreneurial spirit – and, at times, the associated confidence.

This will be the market's crux for AirAsia X's future – where AirAsia stops and where AirAsia X begins. AirAsia X is substantially complemented by AirAsia to sustain its effectiveness. The relationship between the two is a give and a take. The market, in assessing the IPO, will determine the balance.

Australian aviation market shows signs of slowdown just as airlines were enjoying yield premiums

There are now clear signs the Australian aviation market is entering a light slowdown, with carriers adding capacity ahead of demand while airfares decline marginally. This will affect the region's carriers differently and they should all fare better than counterparts elsewhere in the world; notably, the market in Australia is still growing, but not as fast. Most exposed are Qantas mainline and Tiger Airways Australia. The former has been slowly losing some corporate business to Virgin Australia and competes with a higher cost base.

Tiger is suffering from group-wide over-capacity and would not be able to redeploy capacity as readily. Unlike Tiger, Jetstar has a healthy and rapidly growing pan-Asian network that can absorb any surplus capacity and at a higher margin even than in Australia. Virgin Australia is seeing yield growth from its transition to a business carrier, growth that should overcome any weakness in the more leisure-exposed areas of its business.

AirAsia X continues concentration theme with Christchurch withdrawal as ultra-long-haul loses favour

AirAsia X is continuing to act on its concentration plan to build scale in key markets rather than spread itself out. The Kuala Lumpur-based low-cost long-haul carrier is withdrawing services to Christchurch and increasing capacity to Perth and Taipei. The withdrawal from Christchurch is despite high load factors, indicating – as with the carrier's withdrawals from London and Paris – the problem is of yield on ultra-long-haul sectors where an LCC's lower cost base has less advantage as fuel comprises a greater share of costs than on shorter sectors.

The withdrawal of four-weekly services to Christchurch, effective at the end of May-2012, will remove AirAsia X's longest flight, leaving all other services – primarily to Australia and North Asia – in a five-to-eight hour range. Previously the carrier's longest flights were to Paris and London, although operated with A340s instead of A330s to Christchurch, but AirAsia X announced in Jan-2012 that Paris and London would be suspended by the end of Mar-2012.

In selecting Gold Coast over China as its second destination, Scoot again goes with low risk option

New Singapore Airlines (SIA) low-cost long-haul carrier Scoot announced today Gold Coast as its second destination after Sydney and confirmed its intention to launch services in Jun-2012. Scoot has decided to launch with two routes to Australia because the process of securing authorisations for China, which Scoot has said will also be served within its first year, is longer and more unpredictable. Gold Coast was selected over two other Australian airports on Scoot’s short list, Adelaide and Brisbane, because of Gold Coast’s excellent track record of success with LCCs, including Asia’s two existing low-cost long-haul carriers – AirAsia X and Jetstar. Gold Coast is also the largest airport in Australia currently lacking a link with Singapore.   

Gold Coast is the fifth largest international airport in Australia behind Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth (see Background information). Among Australia’s top airports it has by far the highest LCC penetration rate. Currently LCCs account for 98% of total capacity (seats) at Gold Coast, including 90% of international capacity and nearly 100% of domestic capacity.

Tiger Australia looks to future but risks forgetting past

Tiger Airways Australia has a clear message about its future after the end of a six-week grounding: it is effectively starting over with the aim to build a foundation it can expand from without the safety and operational immaturity that resulted from growing capacity but not associated safety support, a past it does not want to talk about. But to achieve its new objective, Tiger must remember and continue to address its mistakes, as doing so is the first step in the long track towards profitability.